Trump returning to Iowa State Fair with huge lead over GOP’s presidential primary field

DES MOINES — Seventeen candidates who want to be the next president of the United States. More than a million people, most of them from Iowa. And an endless supply of food on a stick.

The Iowa State Fair, starting Thursday, will become the next focal point in the race to become the Republican candidate for president. Fourteen Republicans — as well as a pair of Democrats and a Libertarian — are expected to visit the fairgrounds, once again bringing the road to the White House down Des Moines’ Grand Avenue.

This year, the race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination comes to the Iowa State Fair in much the same shape it has been throughout this year: former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the polling at this early stage of the process.

Trump is a whopping 38 percentage points clear of the GOP field in Real Clear Politics’ rolling average of national polls on the Republican primary. In a recent poll in Iowa, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, Trump’s advantage over the next-highest polling candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, was 24 points.

While he is doing neither of two scheduled events for the candidates, Trump is coming back to the Iowa State Fair this year. He will attend the Fair on Saturday, his campaign announced Tuesday. But details of his visit to the fair were not immediately available.

The State Fair provides an opportunity for the rest of the 13 Republican candidates — and others hoping to unseat President Joe Biden — to make their case in front of a mass of Iowans. Fair attendance surpassed 1 million in each of the past two years.

And it’s a broad swath of Iowans — not just the most involved Republican activists, said Republican strategist Craig Robinson. Candidates can capitalize on that by appearing approachable and likable as they shake hands between visiting the Butter Cow and flipping pork chops, he said.

Robinson, who worked as political director for the state Republican Party ahead of the 2008 caucuses, said he expects candidates to find ways to make a splash at the fair by doing something that garners attention.

“What can you do to be unique, right?” he said. “They all have different strengths and weaknesses, some are great at retail politics, others are not. And so these campaigns have to find the best way to make their mark when they go.”

He pointed to the helicopter arrival of Trump in 2015, making for a visit that was very “Trump-esque.” And in 2012, then-President Barack Obama, campaigning for re-election, created a buzz by visiting the Bud Tent, a popular beer garden.

Candidates’ public speaking events

In addition to the casual walks about the fairgrounds while glad-handing anyone who’s willing, there are two public events — one for Republicans and the other for all — available to the presidential candidates.

The Des Moines Register once again is hosting its annual Political Soapbox series, in which candidates are given 20 minutes in front of the State Fair crowd. Many candidates choose to allow that crowd to ask them questions.

Eleven of the Republican candidates accepted the invitation to speak at the Soapbox. Among those who, as of Tuesday, were not scheduled to appear on the Soapbox: Trump, DeSantis and South Carolina U.S. Sen. Tim Scott.

Two Democratic candidates, Marianne Williamson and Robert Kennedy Jr., and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, are scheduled to speak at the Soapbox. The Democratic candidates are running quixotic campaigns, as Biden is running for re-election and is unlikely to face a serious challenge in the party primary.

Reynolds hosts Republicans

New to the Iowa State Fair this year is a series of “Fair-Side Chats” hosted by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds. The Republican governor invited each of the Republican candidates, and a dozen accepted. The one notable absence is Trump.

The addition of Reynolds’ chats this year will allow candidates to speak to a more concentrated Republican voter base than they may find elsewhere at the fair, including the Soapbox.

“What Reynolds is doing is creating an opportunity that's really, I think, more focused on the Republican electorate that's going to vote in these caucuses,” he said. “And giving these candidates an opportunity to sit down with her at the fair, and then get their points across that they're trying to campaign on.”

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