Flush with optimism and campaign cash, Tim Scott courts Iowa Republicans

DES MOINES — Natalie and Brad Peterson sported “Trump Country” stickers as they attended a major Republican fundraiser last week, a “cattle call” event where people heard from nearly every major Republican presidential candidate.

But Trump wasn’t the only candidate the couple wanted to hear from that night. They also said they wanted to hear from Tim Scott, the U.S. senator from South Carolina.

The Petersons, from Kellerton in southwest Iowa, said they had seen Scott on TV and liked what he had to say. They like Trump, but they weren’t committed to supporting him in the 2024 caucuses, and were giving serious consideration to Scott.

“I think he’s a true American story, and I don't think anybody can take that away from him,” Natalie Peterson said. “With his life story, his (single) mom. I like his Christian beliefs, those types of things, and I'm just curious to hear more.”

Scott often highlights his personal story in campaign appearances and advertisements. He was raised by a single mother and says his grandfather left school at an early age to work on a cotton farm in the Deep South.

Scott’s aggressive media presence and rising poll numbers have turned heads in recent weeks in the 2024 Republican caucus contest. The apparent rise is coming as a window is appearing in the Republican primary contest, one expert said.

Trump alternative

Just a few months ago, the race was seen as a contest between former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the rest of the candidates seen as a distant third, according to Republican strategist Craig Robinson.

But now, after a widely publicized “reset” in the DeSantis campaign that led to a third of the campaign staff being cut, Robinson said the contest for who is the strongest alternative to Trump remains an open question.

“Really what this Iowa caucus campaign seems to be shaping up as is, who will emerge as an alternative to Trump out of Iowa,” he said. “Who is the candidate that's going to actually compete, maybe come in second, and move on in the race with that life.”

While DeSantis still maintains second place over the other Trump opponents, Scott appears to be gaining ground among Iowa Republican voters. Iowa polling is sparse and polling for caucus participation is difficult, but a pair of polls in July showed Scott cracking double digits, only 5 points behind DeSantis in one poll.

A Fox Business poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, showed Scott with 11 percent support, while DeSantis had 16 percent and Trump 46 percent. Another poll paid for by the Trump campaign and conducted by co/efficient, showed Trump and DeSantis with the same levels of support, while Scott had 10 percent.

Those numbers put Scott squarely ahead of opponents like Ohio biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley, the state’s former governor.

“Tim Scott is the only candidate with movement and momentum in Iowa right now," Scott campaign spokesperson Nathan Brand said in a statement. "... As he travels the Hawkeye State, his optimistic message continues to resonate with Republican caucusgoers."

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DeSantis not worried

But DeSantis’ supporters don’t see Scott or other candidates as a major threat. They said Iowa voters’ opinions are still very fluid with more than five months until the Jan. 15 caucuses, and they expect support for DeSantis to solidify in the coming months.

Matt Windschitl, the Republican Iowa House majority leader and one of three dozen state lawmakers who have endorsed DeSantis, said DeSantis’ record of leadership as Florida’s governor will make him stand apart from the others as Republicans survey the field.

Windschitl also cautioned not to put too much stock in polls this far out from the caucuses.

“I think that's where Gov. DeSantis is going to shine because he's got a track record that he can point back to,” Windschitl said, “And say, ‘Listen, I took on the woke agenda. I empower parents. I restored freedoms. I didn't fall in line with Fauci-ism and everything that was going on with COVID.’ He can point back to all those things as a proven track record.”

Scott and DeSantis locked horns last week when Scott criticized the Florida governor over the state’s new education guidelines related to the teaching of slavery.

The recently announced guidelines for African American history in Florida included direction to instruct students that “slaves developed skills, which in some instances, could be applied for their personal benefit.”

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“As a country founded upon freedom, the greatest deprivation of freedom was slavery. There’s no silver lining in slavery,” Scott told reporters at a town hall in Ankeny last week. “...I would hope that every person in our country and certainly running for president would appreciate that. People have bad days, sometimes they regret what they say, and we should ask them again to clarify their position.”

DeSantis has defended the standards as research-based and consistent with standards in other courses. He told reporters last week that "D.C. Republicans all too often accept false narratives, accept lies that are perpetrated by the left.”

Scott ads helping

The Scott surge can be explained, in part, by the senator’s aggressive media strategy in Iowa, Robinson said. According to a KCCI analysis, Scott and his super PAC, Trust In The Mission, had spent a combined $6.8 million on ads in Iowa as of July 20, more than any other campaign.

Trust In The Mission said last month it plans to spend $40 million in early states throughout the fall.

“His message and his advertising is positive,” Robinson said. “I think that's the biggest boost. I don't know if I've seen anything necessarily on the ground that would set him apart from anyone else, but I do think his prolonged advertising campaign has benefited him.”

Scott’s campaign message teems with optimism, a contrast to the grievance-based politics of some of his opponents. His ads emphasize “victory over victimhood,” and he displays his life story to pitch a vision of America where merit and achievement can allow anyone to be successful.

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Tim Hagle, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said that message may appeal to people in a campaign marked by negative messaging, but, still, Republican voters want “somebody who’s going to fight.”

“You can maybe think of how people often thought of Ronald Reagan as the happy warrior that's willing to stand up for his beliefs but try to do so in a little bit more positive way without being all negative all the time,” Hagle said. “And so if Scott could kind of hook into that a little bit, he would get a little bit of traction.”

The advertising also helps introduce voters to Scott, who doesn’t have the name recognition of some of his opponents, Hagle said. About 25 percent of respondents in the Fox Business poll said they want more information about Scott to decide whether they would support him — more than Trump, at 3 percent, and DeSantis, at 12 percent.

But blanketing the airwaves won’t win a caucus contest on its own, Robinson said, and Scott will need to keep up a competitive ground game to hold onto any support.

Scott started his testing of the Iowa electorate early with visits to Republican fundraisers in 2022. He’s held or attended 19 events in the state since then, according to the Des Moines Register’s candidate visit tracker. DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Mike Pence have all outdone him in the number of events held.

“It's never as easy as you can just run a lot of TV ads and that'll do it for you,” Robinson said. “This is a caucus campaign. It takes extra effort for people to participate, and so that's why at the end of the day, you have to engage people, I think, one-on-one in Iowa to be successful.”

Comments: cmccullough@qctimes.com