Campaign Almanac: Trump leads, Tim Scott gains in recent Iowa polls

A pair of recent polls of Iowa Republican voters show U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is gaining ground in the contest for the party’s presidential nomination, while former President Donald Trump retained a commanding lead.

The polls — one paid for by Fox Business and the other by the Trump campaign — both showed the former president in the lead among likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers with 46 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took second place with 16 percent of support in both polls, while Scott pulled in 10 percent support in the Trump campaign poll and 11 percent in the Fox Business poll.

A Scott-aligned super PAC said last week it would devote $40 million to TV and digital advertising in Iowa and other early states later this year, according to The Hill.

While Scott has taken third place in other recent Iowa polls, they are the first major polls that show him breaking double digits, pulling ahead of opponents like biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

The polls suggest Trump still holds a formidable lead ahead of the 2024 caucuses, despite swirling legal battles and taking criticism this month for attacking fellow Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds over her commitment to staying neutral in the caucus contest.

The Trump campaign poll was conducted by co/efficient and surveyed 2,283 likely Republican caucusgoers between July 15 and 17, according to The Hill, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percent. The Fox Business Poll was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research and surveyed 806 likely Republican caucusgoers between July 15 and 19. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Never Back Down to host DeSantis on bus tour

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will make stops in Iowa this week in a bus tour hosted by Never Back Down, the super PAC backing his bid for the Republican nomination for president.

The bus tour will make stops in Chariton, Osceola and Oskaloosa between Thursday and Friday, ahead of DeSantis’ appearance at the Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines on Friday.

The increase in activity by Never Back Down, which has already spent hundreds of thousands on advertising in Iowa, is part of its goal to aggressively boost DeSantis in the state. The Des Moines Register reported this month the super PAC plans to open five offices in Iowa and increase its events with DeSantis.

A spokesperson for the DeSantis campaign said Monday the Florida governor is planning to achieve the “full Grassley” by visiting all 99 counties in Iowa. The feat — which former Vice President Mike Pence has also pledged — is named after Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, who visits each county in an annual tour.

Details of the upcoming events can be found on Never Back Down’s website, www.neverbackdown.org.

DeSantis to headline Brenna Bird fundraiser

Republican Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird will host Republican presidential candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at her first "Big Barn Bash" fundraiser on Aug. 5, she announced Monday.

The event, Bird's first campaign fundraiser since being elected in 2022, will be held Aug. 5 at the Dallas County Fairgrounds in Adel.

Interested members of the public can RSVP by emailing lauren@cgdelivers.com or calling (515) 663-6791, Bird said on Twitter.