Forget the caucuses. Iowa’s top 2024 issue is abortion

Every four years, the political world’s attention focuses intently on what’s happening across Iowa as voters gather for a first crack at choosing the next leader of the free world. But after Iowa lawmakers’ passage of a six-week abortion ban, the real political battle now falls elsewhere. Forget the caucuses. The true battle of 2024 in Iowa will be on down-ballot races where voters’ views on abortion will determine the fate of many state lawmakers.

When it comes to the general election, the potential effects could be sweeping. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll in March found that 61 percent of Iowans favored access to abortion generally, a number that does not bode well for Republicans in more competitive seats, especially after surprising votes in traditionally GOP-leaning places like Kansas.

There are nine Republicans in the Iowa House who voted in favor of the ban and hail from a county that President Joe Biden won in 2020. In 2022, Rep. Bill Gustoff (R-40) won his district just northeast of Des Moines by three points. That same year, Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-89) eked out a two-point victory over his Democratic opponent in his district west of Iowa’s capital city. In an even closer race, Rep. Luana Stoltenberg (R-90) won her constituency in the Quad Cities by just 11 votes in 2022. In the Iowa Senate, a similar pattern plays out. Districts like these are bastions of the quintessential “swing voter” who is likely to have more moderate views on the issue of abortion.

As for the upcoming primaries, there are also political ramifications. For example, Republican State Rep. Jane Bloomingdale of Northwood (R-60) previously opposed measures to restrict abortion and coasted to victory during the 2022 general election. However, she faced a heated primary precisely because of that track record on abortion. On this most recent measure, she did not vote, a move that could have politically fatal consequences in a Republican primary where voters demand partisan loyalty.

Roughly 80 percent of Americans can’t name their state legislator — yet Iowa’s new six-week abortion ban proves that your average state legislator has more power and influence on your daily life than the run-of-the-mill member of Congress. Particularly in Iowa, lots of attention is paid to presidential campaigns and races for the U.S. House and Senate, but the battle over abortion — and most of the issues that affect us today — play out in Des Moines, not in Washington.

When Gov. Kim Reynolds convened a special session of the Iowa General Assembly, she noted that "Iowans have elected representatives willing to stand up for the rights of the unborn and, in doing so, they have voted strongly in support of pro-life principles and against the arbitrary destruction of innocent, defenseless lives.” Political opponents, like Iowa Democratic Senate Minority Leader Pam Jochum, disagreed. “They [Republicans] have overplayed their hand,” she said.

Iowa legislators have shown their cards. Whether you’re pro-life or pro-choice, the fate of this issue will be spoken on down ballot. It’s now up to Iowa voters whether they view their state legislators’ hand as a win, lose, or draw.

Patrick Wohl is the author of “Down Ballot: How A Local Campaign Became a National Referendum on Abortion” (3 Fields Books).