Impact of Trump indictment on Iowa caucuses may be negligible, experts say

DES MOINES — Though the legal issues continue to pile up on former President Donald Trump, Iowa caucus experts doubt this week’s federal indictment on mishandling classified documents will make much difference in the state’s caucuses.

“I don’t really think it’s going to have that big of an impact on the general caucus-goer,” said Marlys Popma, a veteran of Iowa Republican politics and a key staffer on John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “I don’t think they’re going to be swayed by the indictment.”

According to the indictment, Trump improperly stored in his Florida estate sensitive documents on nuclear capabilities, repeatedly enlisted aides and lawyers to help him hide records demanded by investigators, and cavalierly showed off a Pentagon “plan of attack” and classified map, The Associated Press reported.

The indictment is the latest and most significant yet of legal troubles for Trump, who earlier this year in a civil jury trial was found liable for sexually abusing and defaming a woman in the 1990s, and could still face charges related to his efforts to convince state elections officials in Georgia to overturn their presidential election results in 2020.

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Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said while the indictment seems to be more serious than Trump’s previous legal issues, he, too, doubts it will significantly alter the direction of the Republican presidential primary.

“I don’t know how much it’s going to convince people one way or the other,” Hagle said. “You got a lot of people that are hardcore Trump supporters. They’ll see this as purely political.”

Many Iowa Republicans, while attending events featuring the myriad Republican presidential candidates, have said they like what Trump accomplished during his tenure as president, but do not care for his personal style or the legal issues that come with him.

But those types of Republican caucusgoers were probably already seeking another candidate anyway, Popma said.

“I probably am one of those people. I absolutely love what Trump did while he was in office, but I’m a little concerned about his bravado and his tenor,” Popma said.

“... The people who are saying that they're concerned about how he presents himself, they’re not hardcore Trump people, anyway. So are they going to be swayed by this? I don’t know. They might lean toward someone already.”

Trump comfortably leads the field in national polling on the Republican presidential primary. In Real Clear Politics’ averaging of national polls Friday, Trump lead Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the candidate polling next-best to Trump, by 30.8 percentage points.

However, that margin is down from 36.9 points on May 19.

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Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University who wrote a book on the history of the Iowa caucuses, noted four types of reactions to Trump: those who will always support Trump no matter what; those who will never support him no matter what; those who may not like Trump but appreciate the conservative policies achieved during his term in the White House; and those who may not like Trump but are afraid to upset his base supporters.

Mike Pence, Trump’s vice president who is now also running for president against his former boss, addressed the indictment while in Iowa on Thursday, just hours before it was officially announced.

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Pence on Thursday warned against “the politicization of the justice department” and the undermining of “equal treatment,” phrases that also could be found in a long stream of statements made Friday by other Republican presidential candidates and officeholders.

“If the Department of Justice chooses to move forward with an indictment, I would hope that it would meet the very high threshold for the unprecedented action of a federal indictment against the former president,” Pence said Thursday at a Pizza Ranch in suburban Des Moines.

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