The end of the Driving Boom

By Sonia Ashe

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Between World War II and 2004, U.S. drivers consistently traveled more vehicle miles virtually every year - so it's no surprise that our policymakers expect that trend to continue about as much as they expect the sun to rise in morning, and act accordingly.

But hold onto your seat belt - I'm here to announce that the Driving Boom is over.

A new study by Iowa Public Interest Research Group (Iowa PIRG) confirms that our driving is in decline, particularly among younger age groups. As a country, we now drive fewer total miles today than we did eight years ago, and fewer per person miles than we did at the end of Bill Clinton's first term.

Have no fear. The sun will still rise. But our political leaders need to reassess our transportation priorities to reflect changing trends. When policy views are out of touch with reality, it is policy that must change.

Why the change now? Simply, the Millennial generation.

Millennials, people born between 1983 and 2000, are already the largest generation in the United States and their choices will play a crucial role in determining future transportation infrastructure needs.

Iowa PIRG's report, “A New Direction,” shows that young people aged 16 to 34 drove 23 percent fewer miles on average in 2009 than they did in 2001. If this trend continues, even at half the annual rate, total U.S. vehicle travel could remain below its 2007 peak through at least 2040 despite a 21 percent increase in population.

The severe economic recession was likely responsible for some of the decline, but definitely not all. After all, the driving decline began years before the recession.

Millennials are more likely to want to live in urban and walkable neighborhoods, and are more open to nondriving forms of transportation. As the first generation to be glued to our smartphones, Millennials are also looking for transportation options that allow them to stay connected while traveling.

Business travelers have the same idea, and are more likely to seek out transportation options that allow them to get workable hours in while making their way to a meeting out of town.

The lesson here to policymakers: If you want to continue attracting young people to live, work and start up businesses in your city or our state, then you need to make alternative transportation options available to meet the transportation needs of the 21st century.

When it comes down to funding decisions, our political leaders need to look more broadly at alternative options like passenger rail, weigh priorities and rigorously evaluate overall project costs and benefits in a post-Driving Boom era.

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is in the process of finalizing its complete study with estimates about expected cost, economic benefits, and ridership associated with new passenger rail from Chicago to Council Bluffs along I-80.

Iowa DOT findings represent precisely the kind of information our leaders should be considering when thinking about our transportation future.

Until then, it's going to take the voices of Iowans - particularly Millennials - across the state to tell our legislators how we want to get around, and what they need to do to get us moving in a new direction.

Sonia Ashe is an advocate for the Iowa Public Interest Research Group. Comments: sashe@iowapirg.org