3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Minnesota

The high temperature for Minneapolis on Saturday is supposed to be 17 degrees.

The winning team’s point total in the Iowa-Minnesota game might not be much higher. The over/under for Saturday’s contest is 32.5.

Here are three keys for Iowa to emerge victorious and keep the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy in Iowa City for another year:

Does Iowa’s offense improve despite tougher competition?

Iowa’s offense struggled mightily against the Badgers. Its longest drive of the day went for 39 yards, and the Brian Ferentz-led unit did not have any 20-plus-yard plays.

Thankfully for the Hawkeyes, a couple game-changing defensive and special teams plays gave the offense enough of a handicap to reach the end zone.

Deontae Craig’s blocked punt and a long punt return by Cooper DeJean set up Iowa with two drives that began in the red zone. Both resulted in touchdowns — Iowa’s only offensive touchdowns. DeJean also had a pick-six late in the first half.

But a blocked punt, 41-yard punt return and a pick-six are not reasonable to expect on a routine basis.

Iowa’s offense will have perhaps an even bigger challenge this week against Minnesota.

The Gophers rank 11th in defensive efficiency in ESPN’s Football Power Index — a significant step up from Wisconsin at 22nd, Purdue at 58th and Northwestern at 93rd.

Minnesota has allowed teams to convert on third down 25.4 percent of the time — the lowest rate among Power Five defenses — while Iowa’s offense ranks 126th out of 131 FBS teams in third down offense.

Better blocking from the offensive line and more manageable third-down situations will be critical for Iowa’s much-needed offensive improvement.

Do the Hawkeyes slow down Mohamed Ibrahim?

Iowa’s improved rush defense has been a key part of the recent three-game winning streak.

Northwestern averaged 0.5 yards per carry. Purdue 2.8 and Wisconsin 1.6. Those three schools have averaged 3.1, 3.5 and 4.3 yards per carry, respectively, in Big Ten action.

If that success continues against star running back Mohamed Ibrahim and the Golden Gophers, Saturday’s result could fare well for the Hawkeyes.

When Ibrahim rushes for at least 130 yards, Minnesota is 5-0 this year. When he falls short of 130 or is unavailable, Minnesota is 2-3.

Who wins the turnover battle?

This is a key for all of Iowa’s games, and Saturday’s battle for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy will be no exception.

Iowa is 5-1 this season when winning the turnover margin. When tying or losing the turnover margin, Iowa is 1-3.

In Iowa’s three-game winning streak, it has a 6-1 advantage in turnovers.

The turnover margin has an added importance against a Minnesota defense that might not give Iowa’s offense many opportunities to score. The Gophers have allowed only 1.9 red-zone trips per game.

What’s at stake

This essentially functions as a postseason game for the Hawkeyes.

An Iowa win, barring an Illinois upset of No. 3 Michigan on the road, would move the Hawkeyes one win away from repeating as Big Ten West champions.

An Iowa loss, on the other hand, would take a trip to Indianapolis in two weeks off the table. It also would ensure the Hawkeyes would finish with their worst record since at least 2017.

Saturday’s game also will likely have a bearing on Iowa’s postseason bowl outlook. Iowa already has clinched bowl eligibility, but the next two (or three) weeks will determine how prestigious of a bowl Iowa will have. The Rose Bowl and Guaranteed Rate Bowl are technically possible going into this week.

Prediction

Minnesota has as good of an opportunity as it has had in a while to take back Floyd, but Iowa is a few big defensive or special teams plays away from keeping the bronze pig.

Iowa 17, Minnesota 14

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com