3 keys, prediction for Iowa State football against Oklahoma State

Iowa State travels to Stillwater, Okla., to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3, 3-3) in a Big 12 football game on Saturday.

Kickoff is set for 2:35 p.m. (ESPNU).

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones (4-5, 1-5).

1. Start fast

For the first time in Big 12 play, Iowa State took an early lead, extended it, and finished with a fourth-quarter flourish in last week’s 31-14 win over West Virginia.

Despite all of that, the offense did struggle in the second and third quarters, which kept the nervous tension alive until three straight touchdown drives in the final quarter.

Oklahoma State’s defense has given up 31 or more points in each of the past five games — and the Cowboys have been outscored, 85-16, in consecutive losses to Kansas and Kansas State.

So if Hunter Dekkers and a revived run game can churn up a couple of early touchdowns, it’s likely Oklahoma State will not be able to keep up against ISU’s league-leading defense.

2. Keep it balanced

The Cyclones’ running game finally gained some traction against the Mountaineers, totaling 172 yards on 38 carries. But there’s more to that story, which snapped an alarming five-game string of rushing for 78 yards or less.

Dekkers completed 24 of 36 passes, so the run-pass balance was almost perfect (38 to 36). Tailback Cartevious Norton looked as healthy as he’s been all season while totaling 87 all-purpose yards and scoring two touchdowns against West Virginia to earn Big 12 offensive newcomer of the week honors.

Deon Silas broke off long runs of 38 and 33 yards, as well, so if ISU’s offensive line can provide ample push, expect another solid rushing performance to take pressure off Dekkers.

3. Turn up the heat

ISU and Oklahoma State have frittered away 14 turnovers in nine games this season. And with the Cowboys’ once stable quarterback situation now unsettled, the Cyclones must provide pressure via the standard pass rush and blitz packages.

That should lead to shrinking passing lanes and the potential for desperation — key causes for turnovers. Oklahoma State has generally been able to move the ball and score at a high level this season (a 48-0 loss to Kansas State notwithstanding), so if the former occurs, it’s crucial the latter doesn’t.

The Cyclones are tied for eighth in the league in interceptions with five. Getting at least a couple more on Saturday would obviously greatly enhance their chances for a second straight victory. The injury-riddled Cowboys are an astonishing minus-seven in turnovers in recent blowout losses to Kansas and Kansas State, so ISU absolutely must capitalize on that trend if it’s to move within one win of ensured bowl eligibility.

What’s at stake

Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell’s program doesn’t measure itself by wins and losses, but playing winning football remains the clear standard.

ISU’s obviously done too little of that to this point, but a second straight win would fuel hopes for even more to come. It’s also possible a 5-7 mark could result in a bowl bid, but that likely wouldn’t sit well with a team accustomed to achieving at least seven regular-season wins the past five seasons.

Still, prevailing in Stillwater for just the third time since the turn of the 21st century would give ISU a winning streak to carry into its final home game of the season against Texas Tech. That translates to bolstered confidence and even makes the road finale at fourth-ranked TCU appear winnable for a Cyclones team that’s lost five games by a combined 28 points.

Iowa State-Oklahoma State prediction

Who will play quarterback for the Cowboys? Head coach Mike Gundy hasn’t revealed that news yet, but if veteran Spencer Sanders must sit out another game because of injury, either Gundy’s son, Gunnar, or Garret Rangel will trigger the offense.

So there’s that intrigue. But there’s also this overriding fact: Oklahoma State’s defense is heading south fast. It’s last in the Big 12 in yards allowed and ninth in average points allowed. The Cyclones’ defense remains strong and the offense does just enough for a second straight week.

Iowa State 27, Oklahoma State 20

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com