3 keys, prediction for Iowa State football against Oklahoma

Iowa State (3-4, 0-4 Big 12) hosts Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3) on Saturday, hoping to snap a four-game losing streak.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Keep it diverse

Iowa State quarterback Hunter Dekkers’ 25 completions in his team’s latest loss at Texas went to five different receivers — and four of those players had at least one big play.

The nation’s leading receiver, Xavier Hutchinson, grabbed 10 of those passes, but six went to Jaylin Noel, who jetted for the first two touchdowns of his career, five went to Dimitri Stanley and three found the hands of DeShawn Hanika.

A true array of threats in the passing game has finally developed, especially with Noel emerging as a big-play bookend to Hutchinson. Both were targeted more than 10 times and both need to be a bit more sure-handed on a consistent basis, but Oklahoma will find it hard to curtail their production if Dekkers continues connecting with a multitude of receivers.

2. Stop the run

The Sooners are at their best when Eric Gray and other talented running backs are setting up quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s passing game, but they’ll collide with the Cyclones’ Big 12-leading rush defense.

ISU ranks 15th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (105.3) yet defensive coordinator Jon Heacock said Wednesday he didn’t feel his unit had played particularly well lately — and part of the reason for that frank assessment is allowing Texas to rush for 191 yards two weeks ago. Returning to form and fully stuffing Oklahoma’s run game is imperative if the Cyclones are to get into the win column in league play on Saturday.

Gray is coming off a 176-yard, two-touchdown performance in a win over Kansas, so he’ll be confident and primed to back up that big effort.

3. Score first and don’t hit a lull

The Cyclones finally scored first for the first time in Big 12 play when Dekkers connected with Noel for a 5-yard touchdown in the first quarter two weeks ago at Texas.

Trouble was, the offense fizzled for the rest of the first half and the Longhorns built a 17-7 lead, forcing ISU to play catch-up from two scores behind yet again. That can’t — and shouldn’t — happen against an Oklahoma team that ranks 116th nationally in total defense (447.1 yards per game), 102nd in scoring defense (31.0), and is tied for 121st in rushing defense (207.43).

The Cyclones will need to have their best game of the season on the ground and if Jirehl Brock and Cartevious Norton are fully healthy, as expected, that’s not only possible but probable and could set the stage for a much-needed spike in both production and points for ISU.

What’s at stake

The season — that is, if ISU hopes to reach a bowl game for an unprecedented sixth straight time.

This is, given where it falls on the schedule as well as the Sooners’ rare vulnerability, as close to a “must-win” as the Cyclones can point to on the remainder of their schedule. Losing would mean ISU must win one of two road games at top-10 Oklahoma State and TCU, which is unlikely to occur if a breakthrough win does not come on Saturday.

Oklahoma is very good offensively, but adrift on the other side of the ball. If the Cyclones can’t exploit that weakness, it’s hard to believe they’ll win three of their last four games to get to 6-6 overall.

Oklahoma-Iowa State prediction

Las Vegas oddsmakers essentially made this a pick ’em game and that seems about right. But at some point ISU’s offense must come alive and if it’s not this week, the chances of that ever happening this season diminish even as wobbling West Virginia comes to Ames next weekend.

I see a clean and crisp game from Dekkers and a typically solid defensive effort for the Cyclones in the mostly-sunny forecast.

Iowa State 31, Oklahoma 24