3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Ohio State

The expectations outside of the Hansen Football Performance Center are historically low for the Hawkeyes ahead of their football game at No. 2 Ohio State.

Iowa is a bigger underdog than it has been this century against a Big Ten opponent.

The spread opened at 28 points and has increasingly looked unfavorable for the Hawkeyes. As of Thursday morning, Ohio State is up to a 30-point favorite.

Here are three keys for Iowa to keep Saturday’s game at the Horseshoe competitive for longer:

Can Iowa’s offense sustain drives and find the red zone?

Iowa has been one of the least-efficient offenses in the red zone in college football.

Its 12 attempts in the red zone have translated into four touchdowns and four field goals. The 66.7 percent success rate ranks 126th among FBS teams and last in the Big Ten.

Simply getting to the red zone could be a challenging enough task against Ohio State, though.

Iowa is averaging only two red-zone trips per game — the lowest rate among Power Five schools and 128th in the FBS ahead of only Massachusetts, Temple and Colorado State.

Ohio State’s defense, meanwhile, is tied for third in the FBS at keeping opposing offenses from reaching the red zone. Teams average only 1.8 trips inside the Ohio State 20-yard line per game.

Aside from the obvious benefits of sustaining drives on scoring opportunities, it’ll also be crucial to keep Iowa’s defense from not having to be on the field too long against a dangerous Ohio State offense.

Will Iowa’s defense limit big plays?

Iowa’s defense succeeds when it prevents big plays, and Ohio State’s offense thrives on big plays.

Limiting the Buckeyes’ big-play opportunities will be key for the Hawkeyes to hang in there with the No. 2 team in the country.

The undefeated Buckeyes have certainly not had any nail-biting finishes, with five of their six wins coming by more than 25 points.

Notre Dame was the one team to keep the game somewhat close with an 11-point loss, partly because of its ability to minimize Ohio State’s big plays.

The Fighting Irish limited OSU quarterback C.J. Stroud to just one completion of 25-plus yards, and that was for 31 yards. The longest OSU running play was for 16 yards.

Michigan State, on the other hand, is a case study for what happens when a defense falls victim to Ohio State’s explosive offense. The Spartans surrendered four 25-plus-yard completions, including two for 50-plus yards, en route to a 29-point loss two weeks ago.

Ohio State’s offensive line vs. Iowa’s defensive line

Iowa has given up four or more yards per carry twice this season. Both games were losses. They also were Iowa’s two most recent games.

Then-No. 4 Michigan averaged 4.1 yards per carry and finished with 172 yards. Illinois averaged 4.4 yards per carry and finished with 200 rushing yards.

When Iowa gives up that much yardage on the ground, the results often have not been promising. The Hawkeyes have not won in a game in which they allowed four or more yards per carry in more than a year.

Ohio State has a rushing attack capable of putting up similar numbers against Iowa.

TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 6.3 yards per carry, and Miyan Williams is averaging 7.8 yards per carry. Williams individually has more touchdowns than Iowa’s entire offense combined.

The constant between Williams, Henderson and the rest of the OSU running backs has been the offensive line ahead of them.

Ferentz believes the Buckeyes’ offensive line is “probably as big as we’ve seen.”

That’s high praise after already playing Michigan, which won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the country in 2021.

What’s at stake

If the Hawkeyes, as expected, lose to the second-ranked Buckeyes, they’ll need to go 3-2 to be eligible for a bowl game. Northwestern and Nebraska are the most winnable games. The other three — at Purdue, vs. Wisconsin and at Minnesota — are more so question marks.

If Iowa pulls off the upset, it would minimize concerns about attaining bowl eligibility and energize a fan base that has been increasingly frustrated with the lack of results on offense.

Prediction

Ohio State has scored more points in the first quarter of games this year than Iowa has scored in all four quarters combined. This could get ugly fast.

Ohio State 42, Iowa 10

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com