UNI football vs. Illinois State: TV, live stream, 3 keys to the game, prediction

CEDAR FALLS — Northern Iowa aims for its third straight win Saturday in its annual homecoming game against Illinois State.

Picked eighth in the Missouri Valley Football Conference’s preseason poll, the Redbirds (2-2, 0-1) finished 2021 at 4-7 overall and 2-6 in conference games.

Illinois State is coming off a 19-14 home loss to No. 17 Southern Illinois. The Redbirds’ two wins have come at home against Eastern Illinois and Valparaiso, while their other loss came during week 1 at Wisconsin.

The Redbirds’ success this season has been led by their defense, which ranks third in the MVFC, allowing 21.3 points per game.

The trio of Wenkers Wright, Pha’leak Brown and Nigel White have shouldered most of the workload for a run game that’s struggled since returning starter Cole Mueller was lost for the season with a broken leg. Meanwhile, junior quarterback Zack Annexstad is in his first season at Illinois State after transferring from Minnesota. Annexstad ranks fifth among MVFC quarterbacks, averaging 209.3 yards passing per game.

UNI (2-3, 1-1) leads the all-time series 23-14, but lost its last matchup against the Redbirds in Normal, Ill., last season, 17-10.

Here are three keys for the Panthers against Illinois State.

1. Be selectively aggressive

As UNI’s offense continues to grow from what’s been an impressive start to the season, co-offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder pointed out in a conversation with The Gazette this week that picking the right moments to be aggressive is part of taking the unit to another level.

In last week’s win against Indiana State, the Panthers’ offense got to the Sycamores’ 27-yard line, only to suffer back-to-back sacks that lost 9 and 12 yards, respectively. Quarterback Theo Day then threw his fourth interception of the season and Reeder made sure to point out how being too aggressive led to that sequence.

“It was my fault,” Reeder said. “I was trying to be too aggressive and trying to take a shot once we crossed the 50 and catch the defense (off guard). It’s like having a hot quarter in your pocket with those couple of play-calls. I’m aggressive by nature, but just got to temper it at times.”

2. Stun the run

A large part of the bounceback from UNI’s defense has been its ability to create more passing downs for its opponents.

So, given the struggles of Illinois State’s running game, it’s safe to say that, on paper, the Panthers ought to be able to create a scenario where Annexstad is forced into a number of pivotal throws. Stun the run, win the game. It may not be any more complicated than that.

3. Formidable fakes

Whether it’s this game or an upcoming one, punter Cael Loecher’s background as a high school quarterback should provide the Panthers plenty of confidence if they ever feel the need to dial up a fake.

Whether it’s needed or not, calling one before a potential trip to the playoffs feels pragmatic. Long story short, if the situation presents itself, don’t sleep on Loecher’s ability to steal back a possession for the UNI offense.

UNI vs. Illinois State

Kickoff time: 4 p.m. (CT)

TV: KCRG 9.2

Live stream: ESPN+

Prediction: UNI 30, Illinois State 20