Kinnick has been ‘where top-5 teams go to die,’ but Iowa’s offense must be alive vs. No. 4 Michigan

IOWA CITY — As Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh sees it, Kinnick Stadium is “where top-five teams go to die.”

As Harbaugh and his No. 4-ranked team are aware, Iowa has quite the track record in high-profile games at Kinnick.

Last year, then-No. 3 Iowa outlasted No. 4 Penn State, 23-20.

Iowa has won five of its last six home games against teams ranked No. 5 or better. The one loss — the 2017 game against No. 4 Penn State — had a two-point margin.

Fullback Monte Pottebaum credited some of the success to “the way Kinnick is designed.”

“The fans are like right on top of you,” Pottebaum said. “It’s just so loud.”

Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said the environment has “gotten even better” after the renovation to the north end zone. But crowd noise can’t replace the on-field improvements necessary to topple a top-five team.

“The fans can only do so much, and they've been great, and we appreciate that,” Ferentz said. “But we'd better be playing on the field.”

Putting Michigan’s No. 4 ranking to death may depend on how alive Iowa’s offense can be.

“We're going to have to play really well — all three phases,” Ferentz said.

Defense and special teams haven’t been much of an issue. The Hawkeyes lead the FBS with 23 points allowed (5.8 per game) and have won the Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week in three of the last four weeks.

But even after the 27-point affairs against Nevada and Rutgers, Iowa’s offensive stats aren’t promising.

Iowa’s offense is 122nd in third-down conversion percentage, 120th in points per game, 131st in yards per game and tied for 123rd in red zone offense.

The win over Rutgers featured flashes of the offense’s potential, but the unit was far from flawless.

Iowa was just 1-of-9 on third-down conversions against Rutgers, partly because of the abundance of third-and-long scenarios. On average, Iowa had to go 9 yards on those nine attempts to achieve a first down.

Quarterback Spencer Petras had his most efficient performance of 2022, but Iowa’s wide receivers were virtually nonexistent. Petras had only one completion to a wide receiver — a fourth-quarter pass to Arland Bruce IV for a gain of 5 yards.

The Hawkeyes’ 3.4 yards per carry against Rutgers would’ve ranked 11th in the Big Ten in 2021.

The defense’s two touchdowns — one on a Cooper DeJean interception and the other on a Kaevon Merriweather fumble recovery — masked some of the offensive shortcomings. The margin for error will be much less against the Wolverines, though.

“Our players need to understand each and every play — it's like an NFL playoff game,” Ferentz said. “Each and every play, something can happen.”

Iowa will face a Michigan defense that no longer has pass-rushing threats Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, but still has many other dangerous players.

“It’s going to be the most talented team we’ve played,” Petras said.

It also will be the biggest test of the year for an offensive line that has been starting four underclassmen. Petras described what Michigan will likely do at the line of scrimmage as “almost a call to arms for our offensive line.”

“A lot of the pressures they’re trying to bring on third down, they’re trying to get one-on-ones across the board, which most teams do,” Petras said. “They’re saying that they want to get a one-on-one and they’re going to win one of them.”

Ferentz said Michigan defensive lineman Mazi Smith “looks like a refrigerator, except he can move.”

Petras isn’t naive to the menace Smith and the rest of the Wolverines can be.

“There are going to be some pressures that are going to be issues,” Petras said.

Iowa is a 10.5-point underdog from Caesars, FanDuel and other sportsbooks, as of Tuesday afternoon.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Hawkeyes a 23.2-percent chance of winning.

“They're a big, strong, athletic team, so if you're not on your game each and every play, big things can happen against you,” Ferentz said. “Can we close that gap between now and 11 a.m.? That's the challenge that we have.”

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com