Bringing the woman’s vote home

Let me start with my conclusion. Voting is not hormonal. Few women vote for women because they are women. Some men won’t vote for a woman, but they are few and probably stay home on Election Day. If you don’t agree there is no “women’s bloc,” reading on may be a waste of time.

Inevitably, as the last vote is counted in this fall’s election, talk will intensify about 2024 and the presidential race. The script is already written. “Will Biden, the oldest presidential candidate in our history, run again? If he does, will he keep Kamala Harris as his running mate and heir apparent?”

The answers normally would be between “probably” and “certainly,” and the conversation should end. It won’t. Harris has had rough moments, some on immigration, some on staff fleeing and charging abusive treatment.

A major reason offered by supporters is that she’ll bring in the women’s vote in the general election, providing votes Biden would not draw on his own. There are reasons for keeping Harris on the ballot, but the women’s vote is not one. There is no conclusive evidence that women vote for women, gender overcoming all else. Look at other elective offices. There are nine female governors today, 24 senators, and 121 members of the House of Representatives. It is not clear in any one of their elections that women made a difference.

The first woman on a major national party ticket, Geraldine Ferraro, ran for vice president with Walter Mondale in1984. It was assumed that her groundbreaking selection was bound to bring the women’s vote to the polls. It didn’t. The Mondale Ferraro ticket carried Minnesota and the District of Columbia for a total of 13 electoral votes. Ronald Reagan with a male running mate racked up 525 electoral votes, the largest electoral margin in our history.

Did Joe Biden, almost 40 years later, gain votes when he put Harris on the ticket? Women of color did vote heavily for Biden-Harris. Would Biden lose them if he dropped her now and replaced her with a white man? Probably. But, even if there were some drop off, will there be enough to make an electoral difference? I think not.

Harris has consistently run behind Biden in approval polls, not behind just with men, but behind among women as well. Democrats should have learned this before.

If there were really a woman’s vote, it should have been clear in 2020 when Hillary Clinton ran against Donald Trump. White women who had less than a college education voted for Trump over Clinton, 62 percent to 34 percent. Even among college educated women, Trump got 45 percent and Clinton just 51 percent.

What we have seen from Geraldine Ferraro to Hillary Clinton to Kamala Harris is political strength and weakness based on both superficial and serious facts. Where do they stand on abortion? How will they vote on a Supreme Court nominee? Health care? Education? What party do they belong to?

Or does none of that matter? Despite all the talk, both women and men vote for or against the top of the ticket. The women who would vote for Biden because of Harris determine neither state nor electoral victory.

Norman Sherman of Coralville has worked extensively in politics, including as Vice President Hubert Humphrey’s press secretary, and authored a memoir “From Nowhere to Somewhere.”