Future Iowa caucuses could be split, with GOP first in the nation and Democrats not

DES MOINES — Publicly, Iowa Democrats are putting on a brave face. But the reality is more grim: Their leadoff position in the country’s presidential nominating process is very much in danger.

Every four years, every election cycle since the modern system was created in 1972, Iowa has started the process of choosing the Democratic and Republican candidates for president. That has brought expansive attention to Iowa as presidential candidates make early visits to the state in hopes of building momentum.

But the national Democratic Party this week approved new rules that could shake up the order in which states execute its process of choosing the party’s nominee. Under the new rules, states are required to apply to be one of the first four or five states to cast their presidential preference.

So Iowa is no longer guaranteed its enviable leadoff position in picking Democratic presidential candidates. And the criteria for early-voting states being established by national Democratic leaders will make it difficult for Iowa to make a case it should remain among the early voters.

Iowa Democrats will nonetheless make their case, they say.

“Iowa will absolutely be applying to be in the early window and we will look forward to enthusiastically making our case,” Iowa Democratic Party Chair Ross Wilburn said in a statement.

Iowa state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst, leader of the Democrats in the Iowa House, said Thursday she is confident Iowa Democrats will be able to make the case that the state deserves to maintain an early-voting position.

“I have confidence that we can make a good case for why we need to be first in the nation and why we’ve continued to show that we can play this role in an important and valuable way,” Konfrst told reporters on a press call. “I have full confidence that we can get there through the application process.”

That application process, though, may be stacked against Iowa.

When choosing the early-voting states, the national party will consider multiple factors, including the demographic diversity of the state’s population, whether the state is considered a battleground in the presidential general election and access to the ballot — in other words, giving preference to states with primary elections over states like Iowa with caucuses.

Iowa does not fare well in those metrics.

Iowa is not a diverse state relative to most of the rest of the country; it is tied with Utah for having the seventh-highest white population, according to federal census data.

In the past two presidential elections, Iowa went for Republican Donald Trump by 9 and 8 percentage points in the general election. But Iowa does have a stronger line of defense here: Over the past nine presidential elections since 1988, Iowa has gone for the Democratic candidate six times and the Republican three times.

And, of course, on the Democratic side Iowa remains a caucus state. That can only be changed by state law. And even if Iowa Democrats wanted to change their primary process to an election from a political party event, Republicans currently have full majority control of the state lawmaking process.

“It certainly does not bode well for the (Democratic) caucuses, the traditional first in the nation position,” said Dennis Goldford, a political-science professor at Drake University who wrote the 2010 book, “The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event.” “If they haven’t passed on, so to speak, they’re certainly in critical condition.”

The Democrats’ potential changes may not be noticeable to Iowa for another six years. If President Joe Biden seeks re-election in 2024, it is unlikely he will face any significant primary challenge. Thus, the Democrats’ presidential nominating season will not likely be competitive. It will probably be the 2028 election season before the Democratic presidential primary is competitive and garnering national interest.

The Democrats’ potential changes also do not impact Republicans. In fact, national Republicans on Thursday reiterated their plan to keep Iowa as the first state in their party’s presidential nominating process.

That means it’s conceivable that in 2024 and beyond, two different states could start the parties’ presidential nominating processes.

Jeff Kaufmann, the Republican Party of Iowa chair, said Thursday that he, too, holds out hope that national Democrats will continue to include Iowa among its early-voting states. And he warned that if they take Iowa out of that position, that it will send the message that national Democrats do not value rural, Midwest voters.

“We’re going to go first. Iowa Republicans are going to go first. I want Iowa Democrats to go first,” Kaufmann said. “Even if there’s a political advantage to me being able to say that (national Democrats) tossed Iowa overboard … I don’t want to be able to say that. Because I think the state is going to be stronger if we go together. And I think the process is going to be stronger. So I’m still going to stand with (Iowa Democrats).”

Iowa Democrats and Republicans have long been forced to defend their enviable position on the presidential nominating calendar. The heat on Iowa Democrats rose to a fever pitch after the 2020 caucuses, when a new program designed to record and report the results on caucus night failed, leaving Democrats without official results for weeks.

Critics of the Iowa Democratic caucuses also point to the caucus format, which unlike an election requires participants to be physically present for a defined period of time, making participation challenging for individuals with physical challenges, or with family or work responsibilities that conflict.

Comments: (515) 355-1300, erin.murphy@thegazette.com