Attention, Hawkeyes: The 5/12 NCAA tourney matchup is as perilous for favorites as advertised

Iowa is a No. 5-seed in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, set to play 12th-seed Richmond at 2:10 p.m. (CT) Thursday in Buffalo, N.Y.

You know what’s going to be said this week by those who think they sound smart when they say it. A No. 12-seed always upsets a No. 5-seed in the first round in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

Is it true? Almost. A 5-seed has beaten a 12-seed in 31 of the last 36 tournaments. All four 5-seeds won in the first-round of the 2018 tourney. However, three of the four 12-seeds pulled upsets in 2019. Three 12-seeds beat 5-seeds in 2014, as well.

One of the four 12-seeds, Oregon State, won its first-round game a year ago. One 5-seed lost to a 12 in 2017, and the 5s and 12s split their four games in 2016.

Overall, 5-seeds are 93-51 against 12-seeds. Since 2016, 5-seeds from the Big Ten are 3-3 against 12-seeds. Oregon, Middle Tennessee State and Little Rock took down favored foes from the Big Ten.

OK, so what about the achievements of NCAA 5-seeds through the years?

Well, of the top eight seeds, only No. 5 is without a national champion. However, there have been some great runs. Forty-nine went on to the Sweet 16, nine went to the Elite Eight, seven got to the Final Four, and three reached the championship game.

In 2019, Auburn was a 5-seed. Bruce Pearl’s Tigers nipped No. 12 New Mexico State by a point, then beat No. 4 Kansas, No. 1 North Carolina and No. 2 Kentucky to reach the Final Four.

In 2010, Butler met Michigan State in a Final Four semifinal between No. 5-seeds, with the Bulldogs advancing. They came within a whisker of defeating Duke in the title game.