Thanksgiving's price tag packs on the pounds

American households are about to eat their costliest Thanksgiving dinner ever. That is, if they can find the turkey.

As families plan to gather again after last season in lockdown, shoppers should expect to pay more for meat and all the trimmings. Whole frozen turkey prices are up about 20 percent year over year to an all-time high, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, while retail prices for pie-staples such as milk and sugar are at multiyear highs.

Even alcohol costs, from beer to cocktails, are climbing as the kickoff to the holiday season is here.

"Nothing on that Thanksgiving table is really going to be spared," said Curt Covington, senior director of institution credit at AgAmerica Lending, which loans money to farmers.

He says families should brace for the meal to be as much as 15 percent higher than last year, with supermarkets possibly selling out of smaller turkeys and turkey breasts.

"You're already seeing that there's not going to be the type of bargains that there were in the past," Covington said.

America's Thanksgiving holiday lands at a time when inflation, mangled supply chains and heightened demand are converging. Food inflation — an issue the world over — has been worsening in the United States as a shortage of workers at meatpacking plants and transportation companies leaves grocery shelves looking sparse. At the same time, costs for farmers including fertilizer, animal feed and fuel are soaring.

Taken together, food prices continue to climb, helping to fuel in Oct. the fastest annual growth in U.S. consumer prices since 1990.

Meanwhile, more people will be traveling this year after widespread vaccination efforts in the spring across America, increasing demand for the traditional foods from poultry to potatoes that normally grace Thanksgiving tables. Throw in gasoline prices, around the highest since 2014, and households are going to feel Thanksgiving's pinch.

"Without a doubt, due to the highest inflation in 30 years, the tab for this Thanksgiving dinner will be the highest consumers have seen," said Daniel Roccato, a financial analyst at Credible, an online marketplace for loans. "It's going to cost you more to host Thanksgiving and cost your family more to drive there this year."

A family of four can expect to spend at least $26.57 to put the classic Thanksgiving dinner on the table, up about 10 percent from 2020, not counting the extra $18 a week drivers are spending at the pump, he calculated.

That estimate was crunched using last year's American Farm Bureau Federation survey as a starting point, which includes a turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, pumpkin pie with whipped cream and after-dinner coffee for four at average prices nationwide.

Additional sides, appetizers, multiple pies or alcohol — mainstays at many gatherings — are not included.

‘Order early, order often’

Most chains — seeing the accumulating supply chain coming like a large tidal wave — began ordering months ago in attempts to have merchandise on hand.

“When it comes to product availability and supply chain concerns, we are well-stocked and not anticipating any issues this holiday seasons due to our supplier contracts and inventory levels,” said Christina Gayman, assistant vice president of communications for the West Des Moines-based Hy-Vee grocery chain.

New Pioneer Food Co-op, with three stores in the Corridor, also tried to plan ahead.

“We took a lot of precautions to be in good supply for the holiday including reserving product with our distributors at a larger rate and earlier than ever before, constantly tracking what product has been coming in and having backup options in place when product has been short, and staying engaged with our preorders constantly to make sure we can fulfill every order we take,” said Linda Fritz Murphy, purchasing lead.

New Pioneer worked with National Cooperative Grocers, as well as direct programs with distributors, to begin securing product in June, she said.

“We do this every year, but it seems to be earlier and earlier every year to have the best chance at success.”

If they run into challenges, Fritz Murphy said New Pioneer works with multiple distributors and have a process for ordering from alternative vendors and distributors when items are out of stock.

“The philosophy we subscribe to for the holidays is order early and order often,” she said.

According to data provider IRI, sales of Thanksgiving items in the three-week period ending Oct. 31 were up 63 percent, compared with a historical gain of 45 percent in previous years.

The pickup was mostly driven by turkeys, pie filling, stuffing and stock.

“My guess is that the uncertainty in the supply chain is prompting shoppers to get their holiday planning done sooner than later,” Fritz Murphy said.

The cost of turkey

One key factor behind the higher prices is the Thanksgiving centerpiece — the turkey.

According to USDA data, wholesale frozen turkeys weighing 16 pounds or less cost on average $1.41 a pound currently, up 23 percent year on year. Bigger birds are up about 20% from last year to $1.39 a pound on average.

To be sure, some grocers will sell turkeys for less than they paid, to attract customers.

"That's something they're intentionally taking a loss on," said Grace Grossen, an agricultural economist at the USDA. "They'll make them really cheap to get people in the door to buy their canned goods and other items."

The rising prices are partially because there's less turkey in cold storage than normal for this time of year, with turkey breast meat in especially low quantities.

A lack of labor has made it harder to debone, pack and ship poultry at the same time some families are opting for smaller birds or cuts.

Nearly two-thirds of American adults said they would spend Thanksgiving with just their immediate family, according to a Morning Consult survey conducted in Oct., meaning they don't need the 20-pounders common for this time of year.

Smaller birds, those in the 10-to-12-pound range, will be in hottest demand, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jennifer Bartashus.

But while stores are stocked, retailers are reminding customers to shop with patience.

“My advice would be to have flexibility and back up recipes in mind in case they do run into out of stocks and aren’t able to get everything they need for that favorite dish,” New Pioneer’s Fritz Murphy says.

Bloomberg News and Gazette correspondent Katie Mills Giorgio contributed to this report.