Iowa vs. Minnesota analysis: Hawkeyes face more challenging defense, run-heavy offense

IOWA CITY — Iowa football coach Kirk Ferentz is well aware of the importance of games in November.

“That really is where teams get defined,” Ferentz said. “That's what they get remembered by typically.”

Saturday will be no different. Iowa and Minnesota will be playing for a lot more than just a bronze pig in the latest renewal of the Floyd of Rosedale rivalry. Here’s what to watch for:

Iowa offense vs. Minnesota defense

The biggest question for Iowa’s offense will be how Alex Padilla performs in what likely will be his first career start.

Padilla completed 18 of 28 passes for 172 yards against Northwestern.

Minnesota will be the bigger test, though.

Northwestern is tied for last in the Big Ten in interceptions and in sole possession of last place for completion percentage allowed.

While the Gophers aren’t spectacular at defending quarterbacks — they are also tied for last in interceptions — they have limited quarterbacks to a 57.2 percent completion rate.

It’s not elite by any means, but it will provide more of a challenge than Northwestern offered. Saturday also will be the first time a defense has a week to prepare for Padilla as the starter.

Iowa’s running backs are coming off one of their best games of the season, but they’ll also be facing a tougher opponent on Saturday.

Minnesota isn’t quite at the level of Wisconsin’s stifling run defense, but it has been formidable. Opposing offenses have averaged 3.5 yards per carry, the fifth-lowest rate in the conference.

Iowa defense vs. Minnesota offense

Minnesota likes to run the ball. A lot.

About 71 percent of Minnesota’s plays through the first nine games have been on the ground. That’s more often than Wisconsin or any other team in the Big Ten for that matter.

The Gophers are thin at the running back position, though, after season-ending injuries to four running backs.

They’re left with Ky Thomas and Mar’Keise Irving, who are both freshmen, although their lack of experience hasn’t kept Minnesota’s rushing attack from producing results.

At least one running back recorded at least 100 rushing yards in seven of Minnesota’s nine games.

Thomas and Irving dissected Maryland and Northwestern’s defenses, but were much quieter against Illinois.

When they aren’t producing, it’s a lot harder for Minnesota to win games.

Illinois forced the Gophers to play outside of their scheme, throwing 29 times and running 30 times.

The more Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan throws, likely the better for Iowa.

The Gophers are 0-2 when he attempts at least 25 passes. When he doesn’t hit that threshold, they’re 6-1.

What’s at stake

Regardless of who brings back the bronze pig, Wisconsin will be in the Big Ten West driver’s seat.

The winner of the Iowa-Minnesota game will likely emerge as the second team in a two-team race for the division crown.

Assuming the No. 18 Badgers stave off unranked Northwestern and No. 4 Ohio State defeats No. 19 Purdue, Wisconsin and Saturday’s winner at Kinnick would be in a two-way tie for first place in the division.

As Hawkeyes fans likely remember all too well, Wisconsin has the tiebreaker over Iowa because of the 27-7 throttling at Camp Randall a few weeks ago. Purdue has the tiebreaker over Iowa, too.

Losing the tiebreaker to Minnesota as well would essentially be the death knell to any hopes of playing in Indianapolis next month.

Minnesota-Iowa prediction

The Hawkeyes’ offense will face a major test. I see them passing although not necessarily with flying colors.

Iowa 20, Minnesota 17.

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