Iowa vs. Wisconsin analysis: 2 grueling defenses to face off in Madison

MADISON, WIS. — For the first time since the Cy-Hawk game, Iowa had an empty trophy case in the atrium to its football training facility.

Whether the Heartland Trophy goes back to Iowa City on Saturday for a second consecutive year will go down to a battle between two grueling defenses. Here’s what to expect:

Iowa’s offense vs. Wisconsin’s defense

It’s no secret Iowa has not run the ball effectively this season.

The Hawkeyes’ 3.1 yards per carry is second-worst in the Big Ten.

Improving that will be difficult against a Wisconsin defense with a track record of stifling opposing running backs.

The Badgers have allowed just 1.9 yards per carry and 53.3 rushing yards per game. Both marks are easily the best in the Big Ten.

That will likely put a lot of pressure on quarterback Spencer Petras. He had nine touchdowns and two interceptions in Iowa’s first six games. The Purdue loss was a major setback, though.

Petras tossed four interceptions against a Boilermakers team that has picked off quarterbacks just two times in its six other games.

An Iowa offense that scored just once on three trips within the Purdue 10-yard-line two weeks ago will face one of the better red-zone defenses in the Big Ten.

The Badgers have held offenses scoreless on three of 13 red-zone trips and limited opponents to a Big Ten-low seven touchdowns.

Iowa’s defense vs. Wisconsin’s offense

Iowa’s run defense against Wisconsin’s run offense will likely be a major factor in Saturday’s game.

Wisconsin’s offense once again relies heavily on its running game, attempting runs on about 67 percent of plays. Nebraska is the only Big Ten team to run on a larger percentage of plays.

Wisconsin’s long-held, run-first strategy features two players who have not been in Madison for long.

Chez Mellusi, a transfer from Clemson, spearheads the Badgers’ rushing attack. He had more rushing attempts against Purdue than the entire Boilermakers offense.

True freshman Braelon Allen has proved to be a potent second-string option, rushing for at least 100 yards in his last three games. He benefited from Wisconsin losing three running backs since August. The program dismissed two running backs, and a third entered the transfer portal after an indefinite suspension.

Iowa, meanwhile, has been one of the best run defenses in the Big Ten, averaging 2.7 yards allowed per carry. Only Wisconsin has allowed fewer yards per carry in 2021.

The more Wisconsin has to throw the ball, likely the better for the Hawkeyes.

Quarterback Graham Mertz threw two touchdowns and seven interceptions in Wisconsin’s first seven games, but the Badgers have found success when they don’t have to rely on him.

During Wisconsin’s three-game winning streak, Mertz has averaged 14 passing attempts per game. During Wisconsin’s rocky 1-3 start, Mertz had 27.5 throws per game.

Mertz isn’t the only one prone to giving the ball away, though. Allen fumbled at least once in Wisconsin’s last three games. One of Allen’s two fumbles against Purdue was inside the opponent’s 5-yard-line.

Whether Iowa, which has recorded a Power Five-best 20 takeaways, can force turnovers will be crucial Saturday.

What’s at stake, aside from the Heartland Trophy

With an Iowa win: The Hawkeyes would continue to have at least a share of first place in the Big Ten West. The Nov. 13 game between Minnesota and Iowa would have major implications for who wins the division.

With an Iowa loss: Iowa would likely have to win the last four regular-season games to appear in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Prediction

With two stellar defenses, don’t hold your breath for trips to the end zone for either team.

Iowa 16, Wisconsin 13.

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