Iowa redistricting delay slowing candidate recruitment efforts

The 2022 state and midterm elections are more than a year away, but the clock is ticking for Iowa political parties to recruit candidates and launch campaigns, and the delay in legislative approval of a new plan to set election boundaries is not helping.

In Jones County, for example, Democrats say they’ve identified potential candidates or had people come forward expressing an interest in running for the Iowa Legislature.

“But you can’t expect people to get too involved until they know the district and who they will be running against,” said former lawmaker Andy McKean of Anamosa.

The hesitancy from potential candidates is not unique to Jones County. Andy Suchorski of the Democrats’ Iowa Senate Majority Fund sees that happening around the state. He’s seeing strong interest from Iowans who want to run — but want to know who they’ll be up against if they do.

Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann also is hearing from Iowans interested in running for the Legislature or Congress who are waiting to see the final redistricting map before making a decision. However, he’s hearing from others who want to run for office regardless of the boundaries.

“It's almost like they're motivated by pure enthusiasm, pure desire to serve, and aren't really worried about the details that they're going to have to worry about at some point,” Kaufmann said.

The redistricting process first was held up by COVID-19, which caused the U.S. Census Bureau to delay its head count that is used to redraw the boundaries of congressional and legislative districts to reflect population changes every 10 years. The process then has been further delayed because Senate majority Republicans rejected the first plan. A second plan will be considered in a special session Thursday.

McKean won’t say extending the approval process is a Republican strategy, but he doesn’t rule it out, either.

“One thing I would point out is that it’s a tremendous advantage to incumbents,” he recently told a Democratic gathering. “I wouldn't be surprised if that's part of what's going on here. It's just kind of kicking the ball down the road a ways. It could very well be that we don't know what the districts are until at the earliest November, and possibly even later than that.”

Until then, McKean added, “everyone is in a state of suspended animation,” he said.

Although overcoming a 32-18 deficit in the Senate may take more than one election cycle, Suchorski said, Democrats are particularly interested in a couple of races. They’re targeting Senate Majority Leader Jack Whitver of Ankeny, and State Government Committee Chairman Roby Smith of Davenport. Whitver has pushed an aggressive Republican agenda and Smith made his party’s argument for rejecting the first redistricting map and has sponsored legislation Democrats label as voter suppression.

“We’re seeing backlash to that,” Suchorski said, adding that potential candidates will present “a strong contrast to folks who are in Des Moines who are not working for their constituents. They like to say one thing on the campaign trail and then they go to Des Moines, they vote another way. I think it's catching up to both Smith and Whitver, and I think we're seeing that in the candidate recruitment.”

Republican don’t face the same recruitment challenge as Democrats. With a 60-40 advantage in the House in addition to their Senate majority, the GOP doesn’t have to recruit as a many challengers.

In fact, Kaufmann indicated the problem may be more candidates than openings. Some potential candidates who are not familiar with the process “just know they want to run for something … and you don't want to take away that kind of enthusiasm coming from your base.”

One challenge for Republicans is that the redistricting plan under consideration would lump many of the GOP legislators in districts with another Republican incumbent, which could lead to primary contests.

Meanwhile McKean said he and fellow Democrats will continue to work with people interested in running. In addition to learning who they might face or whether there will be no incumbent in a newly drawn district, potential candidates want to know the voters registration numbers before declaring their candidacy.

“Jones County is pretty red,” McKean said, with 4,753 Republicans and 3,354 Democrats. There are 5,804 other registered voters not aligned with either party. Over the years, both Democrats and Republicans have represented the county in the Legislature.

“It’s a place where a good candidate who runs a good campaign can get elected,” said McKean, who entered the Legislature in 1979 as a Republican and left this year as a Democratic. A Democratic “may be an underdog, but not without possibilities.”

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