Iowa’s next 10 years: Census figures provide challenges and opportunities

Iowa’s population is growing at a slower rate than the rest of the nation, 2020 U.S. Census numbers show. The data present both challenges and opportunities for the state.

Notably, the growth is not realized equally across the state. Suburban areas saw the greatest gains, followed by their nearby metro areas, while small towns mostly saw population declines. The minority population is growing while the white population is in decline.

Ten years from now, we hope to report Iowa still is gaining population. To make that a reality, and to do it well, state leaders need to plan now for future growth.

Sustaining rural Iowa

The shift of people from the country to the city is neither new nor unique to Iowa, but it remains a pressing issue in a state that has long been identified as rural.

The unfortunate truth is that not all of Iowa’s nearly 1,000 incorporated cities are likely to be sustainable in the long run.

There is a clear trend in recent census numbers released for Iowa — cities within metropolitan statistical areas tended to grow, while those outside tended to shrink.

The unfortunate truth is that not all of Iowa’s nearly 1,000 incorporated cities are likely to be sustainable in the long run. In cities outside metro areas with 500 or fewer residents, more than 80 percent posted population declines in the last 10 years. Sadly, some of them eventually will go extinct.

Communities with low density sometimes struggle to sustain basic services, such as transportation and utility infrastructure, schools and grocery stores. In the past few years in Iowa, rural hospitals and child care centers in particular have faced extreme hardship.

State and local officials must work to sustain and rejuvenate as many small towns as possible. Some efforts to that end — such as rural broadband expansion, economic development grants and renewable energy projects — already are underway but could be expanded upon. Charting a path to modest growth or smart decline will require collaborative efforts between levels of government.

Supporting burgeoning cities

The state saw its fastest population growth over the past decade in suburbs and bedroom communities — the small and mid-size towns near larger cities, especially Des Moines and Iowa City, according to census data analyzed by the Iowa Community Indicators Program at Iowa State University.

Linn and Johnson Counties represent a bustling corridor in a mostly stagnant state and we are especially well suited here to capitalize on the benefits of intergovernmental projects.

Tiffin topped the list statewide with a staggering 132 percent jump to more than 4,500. North Liberty (now about 20,000) and Solon (3,000) also were in Iowa’s top 10 for biggest population increases by percentage. Marion surpassed 40,000 and Coralville surpassed 20,000, each with just under 20 percent population growth.

Among cities of 50,000 or more, Iowa City and Cedar Rapids ranked 3rd and 4th with about 10 percent growth, behind West Des Moines and Ames.

It’s good news that people want to live in Eastern Iowa but that growth comes with growing pains. As small towns become small cities and small cities become bigger ones, they face new sets of challenges. Those include issues related to affordable housing, transit, energy, infrastructure, diversity, workforce development, law enforcement and social services.

This editorial board has long advocated for greater regional collaboration, and that’s especially important when it comes to planning for growth. Linn and Johnson Counties represent a bustling corridor in a mostly stagnant state and we are especially well suited here to capitalize on the benefits of intergovernmental projects.

Over the next 10 years, we hope to see county and city governments in our area create new partnerships to meet the region’s needs. As growing communities seek to add new services and amenities, it makes sense to work together instead of duplicating efforts in each town.

Embracing diversity

Perhaps the biggest take-away from Iowa’s latest census data is the is that non-white Iowans are driving the growth.

Some Iowans apparently are uncomfortable with the demographic shift, clinging to the wrongheaded idea that our state’s identity must be bound to whiteness.

Iowa’s white population declined over the past 10 years, not only as a portion of the state but also in raw numbers. White Iowans are now 85 percent of the state, down about 90,000 people and 6 percentage points since the last census, the Des Moines Register reported.

Some of that shift is attributable to more people selecting multiple races on their census forms, an option that was first available in 2000. But much of it is reflective of genuine growth in our minority and immigrant populations, which are critical to the agriculture sector and to sustaining the state’s population.

Some Iowans apparently are uncomfortable with the demographic shift, clinging to the wrongheaded idea that our state’s identity must be bound to whiteness.

Last year, meatpacking plants staffed predominantly by immigrants were the site of some of the fastest-moving COVID-19 outbreaks in Iowa and state policymakers were criticized for failing to provide adequate protection and testing. This year, Gov. Kim Reynolds has variously blamed immigrants for COVID-19 and for illicit drugs. Brown and Black Iowans routinely complain of disparate treatment by all levels of government, especially the police.

If Iowa is going to attract and retain workers and residents over the next decade, immigrants and other minorities will play a significant part. Rather than criticizing and scapegoating those potential Iowans, we must embrace and support them.

(319) 398-8262; editorial@thegazette.com