Hawkeyes predicted to finish fourth in Big Ten

It's an ugly truth that won't go away, a story line that will be beaten to death until the Big Ten stops getting beat to death by teams from outside the conference: When will the Big Ten become an elite conference on the field again?

Here are the cold, hard, ugly facts for a league that looks up at the SEC and Big 12 from a performance standpoint: The Big Ten has lost six consecutive BCS games and is 9-20 in all bowls the past four seasons.

Last season may have been the nadir, when the league went 1-6 in bowls. The beatdowns the Big Ten has taken in the past two Rose Bowls say it all. The 2008 Rose Bowl saw USC race to a 21-3 lead over Illinois on the way to a 49-17 triumph that saw the Trojans gain 633 yards. Last season, USC toyed with Penn State en route to taking a commanding 31-7 late in the second quarter of an eventual 38-24 win. And that was on top of Ohio State getting annihilated, 35-3, at USC earlier in the season.

How has all this affected teams in the Big Ten?

“I don't know that anyone in this conference has an inferiority complex,” Ohio State Coach Jim Tressel said. “If you watch ballgames, our guys will play toe to toe with anyone. If you watch the NFL draft, they'll get selected at the regularity of almost every conference.

“But it is something that ... we take very, very serious, that every time we line up outside our conference, obviously we're representing ourselves and our institution, but we're also representing this league. That's important to us. When those bowl games are going on, we're rooting like crazy. That's something that's very, very important.”

A few things to keep an eye on this year:

Best offensive player: Penn State QB Daryll Clark. He adapted to the Nittany Lions' “Spread HD” offense quickly last season, showing a knack for making good decisions in the passing game. Couple that with Clark's ample athletic ability and speed, and it's easy to see why he's one of the nation's best dual-threat quarterbacks.

Best defensive player: Penn State LB Navorro Bowman. He's a tremendous athlete, and his speed and athletic ability make him one of the Big Ten's most-feared defenders. He has had some off-field issues, but if he can stay out of the coaches' doghouse, he and Sean Lee give Penn State a great duo at linebacker.

Defensive players on the spot: Iowa tackles Karl Klug and Mike Daniels. This tandem is replacing the standout duo of Mitch King and Matt Kroul that generally wreaked havoc for the No. 9 rush defense in America. It's vital that Klug and Daniels be reasonable facsimiles if the Hawkeyes want to challenge for the league crown.

Most overrated player: Illinois QB Juice Williams. Many felt he would become one of the best quarterbacks in Illini history. It hasn't happened. Williams has had his moments in his first three seasons in Champaign. But he has tossed 37 interceptions to 44 touchdown passes and completed just 52 percent of his passes during a roller-coaster career.

Most underrated player: Iowa CB Amari Spievey. Spievey, a junior, has great size (6 feet, 190 pounds) and should get more national notice this season.

Coach on the hottest seat: Indiana's Bill Lynch. Taking over for the deceased Terry Hoeppner in 2007, Lynch impressed in leading the Hoosiers to their first bowl since 1993. But the program lost a lot of momentum last season during a horrid 3-9 campaign (including 1-7 in the Big Ten) that included home losses to Ball State and Central Michigan.

How they'll finish: 1. Ohio State, 2. Penn State, 3. Iowa, 4. Michigan State, 5. Illinois, 6. Michigan, 7. Wisconsin, 8. Minnesota, 9. Northwestern, 10. Purdue, 11. Indiana