Film woes compounding Culver’s problems

Gov. Chet Culver needs to shed his insular “Nixonian” style of leadership, according to observers who say the perception he is unresponsive to Iowans' concerns leaves him open to criticism he is not in control of state government.

While Republicans hoping to replace him have been quick to say Culver's response to suggestions the Iowa Film Office inappropriately issued $32 million in tax credits is just the latest example of mismanagement, defenders say the first-term Democrat has demonstrated the kind of leadership Iowans will appreciate when they enter the polling booth in 2010.

In recent months, Culver has had to pick his way through a field of potential political land mines including the film tax credits - now the subject of a criminal investigation - declining state revenues that could lead to reductions in state services and layoffs, a 20 percent drop in the value of the state employee retirement program and a report this week questioning his handling of $2.5 million in federal Help America Vote Act funds.

“Gov. Culver has run into a bad patch,” conceded Joe Shanahan, a veteran of former Gov. Tom Vilsack's administration, “but by next spring or summer things will have turned around and we'll be in better shape.”

Steffen Schmidt, who has been observing Iowa politics for 40 years as an Iowa State University political science professor, isn't as optimistic about Culver's political fortunes.

“If the economy was strong, if people weren't worried about jobs and mortgages, if the price of corn and soybean were better and it appeared the state would see a revenue surge, then these things would be seen as administrative problems that you fix by firing a few people and sending people to jail,” Schmidt said.

Instead, they are happening at a time when the economy is weak and Culver's approval rating has slipped, Schmidt said.

On top of that, Schmidt said, Culver “has reputation for not listening, and people say they can't get through to the governor.”

Rather than respond to critical situations “by getting in front of it, by meeting with the media and being charming, Culver seems to be doing a Nixon - sending other people out to talk about the problems while he gets on trains and rides around the state,” said Schmidt, referring to the late President Richard Nixon.

Culver was decisive in replacing the top managers of the Iowa Department of Economic Development when questions were raised about oversight of the film tax credits, Shanahan argued.

“The governor is showing he's in charge and he's letting the directors of other state department know the governor is running the state,” Shanahan said.

Republicans already are making the case Culver is bumbling from one calamity to another. They will argue Culver's handling of the budget at a time when revenues are declining and more than 100,000 Iowans are out of work has put Iowa in deeper economic jeopardy, University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle said.

“It will be a line of attack. I've already heard it once or twice,” he said.

The key to Culver's re-election success will be whether he can rebut that argument, according to UI political scientist Cary Covington.

“I think a lot of it is yet to be sorted out,” Covington said. “The key is whether these things contribute to the perception of a pattern. One misstep is one thing. But if it appears to voters there is a pattern it's another thing.”