Poll: Corbett leads Fagan in Cedar Rapids mayoral race

A Gazette Communications poll finds that Ron Corbett has an eight point edge on Brian Fagan heading into Tuesday's mayoral vote.

Of 404 likely voters, 42 percent said they would vote for Corbett, 34 percent said they would vote for Fagan and 1 percent said they would vote for the third candidate in the race, P.T. Larson.

Neither of the leading mayoral candidates appears to be a sure winner, however. Results show 24 percent had not decided or did not answer the survey.

The scientific phone survey was conducted last week and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent. So Fagan's backing could be more than 4 percent higher and Corbett's more than 4 percent lower, an error margin that would cancel out Corbett's lead.

Jeff Wolff, Gazette Communication's senior manager for business and financial analysis, calls it an “extreme” case if the margin of error was working that way.

Wolff adds that Corbett's numbers might be stronger than they appear because of his backing among those 36 and older - a group, Wolff said, that is more likely to vote than those younger than 36.

Corbett is favored 44 percent to 32 percent over Fagan by those ages 36 to 55 and 48 percent to 28 percent for those ages 56 and older.

Fagan is ahead 44 percent to 30 percent for those 18 to 35.

Overall, men support Corbett 43 percent to 38 percent over Fagan, while women give Corbett a 40 percent to 30 percent advantage.

Larson's support is highest, 3 percent, among those 56 and older.

Corbett, 49, vice president at trucking firm CRST Inc., is running from outside city government and has been arguing that the current mayor and City Council have gotten the city off track and have been slow to act.

Fagan, 37, an attorney at Simmons Perrine Moyer Bergman and an at-large council member, says the council has worked hard, has developed a clear vision and built a solid foundation for the future, and now is not the time to retreat from that.

Larson, 52, who has run unsuccessfully for city office 12 previous times, says the city needs to focus more strongly on public safety and public infrastructure.

Beyond the mayoral race, the Gazette Communications survey found respondents are not overwhelmingly disillusioned with city government or incumbents.

For instance, 35.3 percent of those surveyed said the city was headed in the right direction, 21.1 percent said it was headed in the wrong direction and 43.6 said they didn't know.

As for overall confidence in the City Council, 8 percent said they had high confidence and 47 percent said some confidence, while 29 percent said low confidence, 10 percent no confidence and 7 percent didn't know or didn't answer.

The 55 percent who said they had some or high confidence is a higher percentage than February 2009, when a Gazette Communications poll asked a similar question. Then 47 percent had at some or high confidence. In November 2007 - before the June 2008 flood - that percentage stood at 66 percent.

Outgoing Mayor Kay Halloran's approval rating is now 17 percent, down from 20 percent in February 2009 and 40 percent in November 2007.

City Manager Jim Prosser's approval rating is 25 percent, down from 29 percent in February 2009 and 41 percent in November 2007. However, 40 percent of those surveyed last week say they didn't know how to rate Prosser.

On flood recovery, 3.8 percent said the city's response has been excellent, 32.7 percent said good, 35.9 percent fair, 24.9 percent poor and 2.6 percent didn't know. Flood victims among those surveyed answered slightly more favorably.

The Gazette Communications survey also asked residents whether they favored building a new City Hall or returning to the Veterans Memorial Building. The largest group, 36.2 percent, favored returning city offices to the building on May's Island, while 18.4 percent said they favored building new. Another 31.2 percent said they didn't know, and 14.2 percent said they favored some other option.

On Tuesday, six of the nine council seats - mayor, two at-large seats and the District 1, 3 and 5 seats - are on the election ballot.