Bowl predictions: Iowa, 3 others battling for two BCS spots

There are a few things everybody should know about the 10-team Bowl Championship Series before starting any kind of argument.

One, six conferences get automatic bids. If you forget that part, you might as well stuff your mouth full of pretzels or something.

Two, if one team from a non-automatic qualifying conference finishes in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, it gains entry into the BCS. The next-highest-ranked team from a non-automatic qualifying conferences is tossed into at-large pool without an inner tube. Three, each conference is allowed just two teams into the BCS.

Four, and most important, setting up the bowls is not about which team deserves the spot the most. It's about wide-open wallets. Never forget that fact.

With just two weeks left in the college football season, conference races are nearly determined. Here's how that fits:

Big Ten: Ohio State; ACC: Georgia Tech/Clemson winner; Big 12: Texas/Nebraska winner; SEC: Florida/Alabama winner; Pac-10: Oregon-Oregon State winner; Big East: Cincinnati-Pittsburgh winner. Among the non-automatic qualifiers, TCU (Mountain West Conference) will secure an automatic bid if it finishes unbeaten. Boise State (Western Athletic Conference) is in the at-large pool if TCU qualifies and does not get an automatic bid.

Three at-large bids are at stake ... well, two really. Count on the Florida/Alabama loser receiving a BCS spot. 

Boise State, if it finishes unbeaten, makes a great case for an at-large bid, especially from the Fiesta Bowl. It brought a good amount of fans in 2007, and the political climate this year might force a bowl to grab Boise State to avoid lawsuits and more Congressional hearings.

Two major conferences also are fighting for those spots. The Big Ten boasts a pair of 10-win teams in Iowa and Penn State. The Hawkeyes blasted Penn State on the field, 21-10, and played Big Ten champ Ohio State much more closely (27-24 in overtime) than did Penn State (24-7). But some argue, like The Gazette's Mike Hlas, that Penn State's body of work is more impressive than Iowa's. The Big 12 features a possible 10-team team in Oklahoma State, if it beats cross-state rival Oklahoma in the annual Bedlam Game. The Fiesta Bowl hosts the Big 12 champion every year, and with Texas likely moving up to the BCS title game, expect a full-court press from the Big 12 to include Oklahoma State in that game.

The wild card is a potential Nebraska upset over Texas in the Big 12 title game. It may sound unbelievable, but a similar event happened in 2003 when Kansas State rolled then No. 1-ranked Oklahoma 35-7. The BCS would include both Nebraska and Texas under that scenario. It's also possible Nevada could upset Boise State this week.

But for the sake of argument, let's say Texas beats Nebraska and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma. Four schools - Iowa/Penn State, Oklahoma State and Boise State - vie for two spots. Here's how I think it breaks down:

BCS BOWLS

• BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas. I remember when Bear Bryant's Crimson Tide coached against Fred Akers' Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl some 28 years ago. Ah, the memories.
• Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon State. After Oregon knocked out the Beavers' Rose Bowl hopes last year, I think they'll rebound this year.
• Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati. After losing Alabama, the Sugar Bowl picks first among available teams and tabs Florida. It also gets the last pick, which is why Cincinnati heads here.
• Fiesta Bowl: Iowa vs. Boise State. After losing Texas, the Fiesta Bowl thinks long and hard about its tie-in with the Big 12. Then it decides 40,000 Iowans traveling to the desert is worth more than 25,000 Oklahomans. Boise State ... well, it's unbeaten and not worth the fight.
• Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. TCU. The Orange picks before the Fiesta and Sugar in the last round. TCU is more marketable than either Boise State or Cincinnati.

BIG TEN BOWLS

• Capital One Bowl: Penn State vs. Ole Miss. Neither team met its goals of greatness, but Orlando IS the place where dreams come true.
• Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. LSU. A better match-up than the Orange Bowl thriller.
• Champs Bowl: Northwestern vs. Virginia Tech. One team is happy to be there; the other is just there.
• Alamo Bowl: Michigan State vs. Oklahoma. Both teams are better than their records indicate.
• Insight Bowl: Minnesota vs. Missouri. Why not meet halfway in Iowa City? Not a lot of love from either school about that prospect.

BIG 12 BOWLS

• Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas. Had the Big Eight decided to expand 20 years ago, this would have been a conference game.
• Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs. USC. At least people will watch this game.
• Sun Bowl: Arizona vs. Texas Tech. A great meeting spot between the schools.
• Independence Bowl: Iowa State vs. Georgia. Seriously, who would have predicted this one five months ago?
• Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy. There will be a lot of American flags waving, that's for sure.

SECOND-TIER BOWLS

• Gator Bowl: Miami vs. Pittsburgh. Notre Dame is in a free-fall.
• Liberty Bowl: Houston vs. Tennessee. Odd NFL fact that the old Houston Oilers played one season in Memphis before becoming the Tennessee Titans.
• Peach Bowl: Clemson vs. Auburn. Gene Chizik avoids game with Iowa State in Independence Bowl.
• Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Kentucky. Will more people care if the schools' basketball teams play afterward?
• Emerald Bowl: Stanford vs. Boston College. The San Francisco-based bowl will accept this game every-other year.
• Meineke Bowl: UConn vs. Florida State. Several good story lines with one, starting with Bobby Bowden's future.
• Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Marshall. Once again, no Big Ten team in this bowl.
• Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon vs. BYU. Don't let the tier fool you on this one. A great game waiting to happen.
• Las Vegas Bowl: California vs. Utah. See Poinsettia Bowl.
• Papajohns Bowl: South Carolina vs. West Virginia. The bowl is darn lucky to have this one.
• EagleBank Bowl: Army vs. Notre Dame. This only happens if both teams win their final game. This year, Washington. Next year, New York City.

OTHER BOWLS

• Humanitarian Bowl: Wyoming vs. Idaho
• Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. Southern Miss
• GMAC Bowl: Ohio vs. Middle Tennessee State
• International Bowl: Temple vs. Rutgers
• New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. East Carolina
• St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida vs. South Florida
• New Mexico Bowl: Nevada vs. Northern Illinois