Storm's timing, path next week could impact holiday travel

Planning to travel next week for the holidays? A storm now developing in the Pacific may change your plans.

KCRG-TV9 meteorologist Kaj O'Mara has this to say about the storm, which could arrive by midweek:

Hesitant to get into details of the storm, as it's nearly impossible this far out to determine any of those, but the large scale picture is becoming clearer. The storm of concern is currently northeast of the Hawaiian Islands and looks to make an impact late Sunday and Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest, involving northern California, all of Oregon and all of Washington state.The reason why it's tough to tell this early is because the system is over the Pacific, where very few, if any, weather observations are done. Once it gets onto land, forecast models will get the opportunity to sample the storm's real potential and possible track.  Reliable data arrives when it hits land and at that point, we can start ironing in some details.From here, the pattern gets a bit muddled as the storm has to cross the Rockies, which occasionally they will get hung up for 6-12 hours before re-organizing on the lee side of the Rockies.  It appears it will re-strengthen again once it passes over Colorado and spins out freely in Kansas.From there, the most logical storm track is through Missouri and southern Illinois, which would keep much of Iowa on the cool side.  With the recent warm weather, though, I would not be surprised to see temperatures get pushed well into the 30s on Wednesday, so we could feasibly start with rain everywhere.  There would also be potential of ice accumulations if the surface temperatures can't beat 32, though this looks unlikely.An ideal scenario would be to keep this all snow or all regular rain, but the warm air will be plentiful at mid-level, which will cause issues with precipitation type.Wednesday-Friday would be our time frame, as this would be a slow mover.  This storm will have the potential to bring moderate rain, snow and ice accumulations to the area during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.  There's lots of time between now and then to iron out details.

The reason why it's tough to tell this early is because the system is over the Pacific, where very few, if any, weather observations are done. Once it gets onto land, forecast models will get the opportunity to sample the storm's real potential and possible track.  Reliable data arrives when it hits land and at that point, we can start ironing in some details.

From here, the pattern gets a bit muddled as the storm has to cross the Rockies, which occasionally they will get hung up for 6-12 hours before re-organizing on the lee side of the Rockies.  It appears it will re-strengthen again once it passes over Colorado and spins out freely in Kansas.

From there, the most logical storm track is through Missouri and southern Illinois, which would keep much of Iowa on the cool side.  With the recent warm weather, though, I would not be surprised to see temperatures get pushed well into the 30s on Wednesday, so we could feasibly start with rain everywhere.  There would also be potential of ice accumulations if the surface temperatures can't beat 32, though this looks unlikely.

An ideal scenario would be to keep this all snow or all regular rain, but the warm air will be plentiful at mid-level, which will cause issues with precipitation type.

Wednesday-Friday would be our time frame, as this would be a slow mover.  This storm will have the potential to bring moderate rain, snow and ice accumulations to the area during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.  There's lots of time between now and then to iron out details.

Bottom line: Stay tuned to latest forecasts as we approach the middle of the week.