Census being completed now will have influence on 2012 elections

DES MOINES - Iowa's elected officials are looking ahead to how this year's census will reshape Iowa's political landscape.

State lawmakers are expected to approve a new map next year that will draw new lines for Iowa's congressional districts as well as Iowa House and Senate districts that will go into effect with the 2012 election.

Completed every 10 years, redistricting can lead to a wave of retirements of elected officials or showdowns between incumbents paired up in the same district.

“If history has shown us anything in Iowa, it's that especially at the congressional level, legislative redistricting is very unpredictable,” said Matt Strawn, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa.

The way Iowa approaches redistricting adds to the unpredictability.

Iowa's non-partisan Legislative Services Agency is charged with drawing up maps armed with the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Ed Cook, a member of the agency's three-person redistricting team, said the group works to maintain complete secrecy until the map is released to the Legislature and will try to find a location outside the Statehouse to work.

“It just eliminates any perception that there's any kind of collaboration with the Legislature at all,” Cook said.

Once the first plan is released, lawmakers can approve or reject the map, taking a gamble they will like a second plan drawn by the agency better. If they reject the second plan, they will be presented with a third plan they can amend.

With Iowa expected to lose a congressional seat after this year's census count, the makeup of the Iowa Legislature next year could be key in approval of new districts.

A Democratic majority in the Legislature could help protect Democratic incumbents in Congress or the Legislature, while a GOP majority could lead to a map more favorable to Republicans.

Leaders on both sides of the aisle praise Iowa's process.

Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, calls redistricting healthy and thinks Iowa's system is one of the best.

“The restrictions on how you can divide up these districts is pretty well-prescribed,” McKinley said.

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, said in some states, whichever party is in control can “stack the deck” with creative mapping, making changes that are nearly locked in for a decade.

But Gronstal points to the last two decades in Iowa as proof that Iowa's system is balanced.

In the 1990s, Democrats were in control during the redistricting process but lost control of the Legislature later in the decade. Republicans who maintained a legislative majority during redistricting in 2001 lost majorities in later years as well.

The last time Iowa saw redistricting in 2001, majority Republicans rejected the first proposed map, saying the population variances in districts were too large.

That map placed former GOP congressmen Jim Leach and Jim Nussle in the same Eastern Iowa district and pitted 70 incumbents in the Iowa Legislature against each other.

The second map, which ultimately was approved, still put Leach and Nussle in the same district, and prompted Leach to move from Davenport to Iowa City to run from that district.