Rubin: New debate is about bringing Taliban to table

Editor's note: Garrison Keillor's column is not available today.

By Trudy Rubin

The new buzz on Afghanistan is all about talking to the Taliban. In London, where nearly 70 countries gathered last week to help resolve Afghanistan's problems, President Hamid Karzai called for a tribal assembly that would include the Taliban and would seek “peace and reconciliation.” The media have gone wild with speculation about whether President Barack Obama intends to offload his Afghan problem by selling out to Taliban leader Mullah Omar, or whether Karzai pulled a fast one on his American mentors by reaching out to insurgents.

I suggest everyone takes a deep breath.

The U.S. position toward talks with the Taliban has shifted somewhat, but no deal with top Taliban leaders is imminent, or even likely. As for Karzai's efforts, they are part of an emerging U.S.-Afghan strategy to woo Taliban who are willing to break with al-Qaida and rejoin the political scene. The shift in U.S. strategy is impelled by recognition that there is no military solution to the Afghan violence. NATO commanders are focused on a bottom-up approach, referred to as “reintegration,” which hopes to wean away low- and midlevel Taliban who are in the fight for a paycheck, or because of grievances with government officials.

Karzai's main mission in London was to raise funds for this program, which is supposed to provide returnees with economic aid and jobs.

“It's good to have a reintegration strategy, but you have to keep close tabs on the money,” said Michael Semple, a former Irish EU official in Afghanistan with deep knowledge of the country. Tribes and ethnic groups that don't get funds may be resentful, and efforts at reintegration may trigger rivalries among local and national Afghan politicians.

U.S. officials are aware of this risk. But the bigger strategic issue is whether to reach out to top Taliban commanders - as Karzai suggested in London. U.S. officials don't oppose such outreach in principle, although they are leaving any top-down approach to Afghan officials, a U.S. official told me in November.

U.S. commanders don't believe, however, that top Taliban members will accept Karzai's invite so long as they think they are winning. U.S. officials say they believe the troop surge and reintegration efforts are necessary to shift the momentum and convince some Taliban commanders that their options have narrowed.

The emerging debate, within the administration and among its allies, is over whether to make a stronger effort, now, to bring senior Taliban leaders to the table.

The removal of five

ex-Taliban officials from a U.N. blacklist signals that it's time for the Taliban to put forward a political platform.

I'll admit I find it hard to imagine the Afghan Taliban morphing into a political party. But it's a prospect worth exploring, while showing that the alternatives lead nowhere.

So let's get on with the feelers - whether via Karzai, or the Pakistanis, or (caution here) the Saudis. As Semple puts it: “This will be much more profound than reintegration, but the main show has not begun. The U.S. position has moved on, but nothing is at an advanced stage.”

n Comments: trubin@phillynews.com