Rubin: Today’s Iran shows similarities to the Soviet Union of the 1990s

By Trudy Rubin

Susan Estrich's column is not available today.

I felt a sense of deja vu as I watched televised scenes of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad exhorting a huge crowd last week on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution. Members of Iran's “Green” opposition were hardly visible, leading many to conclude that the protest movement had been crushed.

Yet my mind flashed back to 1990, when I stood on a Moscow reviewing stand and watched Mikhail Gorbachev address a huge crowd in Red Square during May Day celebrations. Who could have imagined that, 20 months later, the Soviet government would cease to exist?

Could it be that, one or two years hence, Iran's Islamic Republic will meet the same fate? Of course, the differences between Iran and the then-fading Soviet Union are many, and I'll discuss them. But first, let's consider the similarities.

The huge crowd in Tehran's Azadi Square included tens of thousands of government workers bused to the scene. Compulsory attendance was combined with a free lunch and a workers' holiday, just as with the old May Day parades in Moscow.

Members of the opposition, which arose after rigged presidential elections in June, were kept out of the square by a massive police presence, augmented by armed militia goons who blocked streets for miles.

“If people were allowed to freely assemble, there would have been crowds upward of five million in Tehran, and millions more in places like Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashad, and Tabriz,” said Carnegie Endowment's Karim Sadjadpour.

Nor could you judge the Iranian government's strength by Ahmadinejad's boasts about Tehran's military prowess, or by his inflated claims that Iran was already a “nuclear power” and had enriched uranium to 20 percent - a serious step toward the 90 percent enrichment required for weapons. Independent nuclear experts said last week that Iran's nuclear program had suffered serious technical setbacks, which could delay, though not halt, the program.

Moreover, Ahmadinejad never mentioned his serious economic problems at home. On his watch, inflation has soared and foreign investment has dropped under the pressure of international sanctions.

All this is reminiscent of the last days of the Soviet Union, whose economic problems brought on its demise. But here's where there are important differences between Iran and the Soviet Union. Gorbachev knew that, behind the showy facade at Red Square, the government was in economic trouble.

But Ahmadinejad seems oblivious to Iran's economic crisis, perhaps because of his religious beliefs or because his military backers, the Revolutionary Guards, are raking in big bucks from the current system.

If Iran's opposition can hold firm to its demands for human and civil rights, the government's self-confidence may be shaken further, leading to more internal political splits. At that point, new possibilities will open up.

The Obama administration should continue to endorse and rally international support for Iranians' human rights. And if the government continues to stonewall on its nuclear program, intensified sanctions targeting the country's military and rulers will exacerbate its economic woes.

At some point, a critical mass of mullahs, politicians, and even military will recognize, as the Greens have, that Iran deserves better than the staged show at Azadi Square.

n Comments: trubin@phillynews.com