Winter’s worst probably over, state climatologist says

Based on averages, Cedar Rapids should have just 11 more days of snow on the ground.

“In theory,” said state climatologist Harry Hillaker.

In reality, this hasn't been an average winter. It's been about 5 degrees colder than usual in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, and nearly twice as snowy (see chart).

Using data gathered since 1991, the National Weather Service calculates Cedar Rapids will have snow cover for 11 more days, and Iowa City for 8 more days. In 2003, Cedar Rapids' snow cover was gone by Feb. 26, but last year it didn't melt until March 22 in both cities.

For climatologists, winter ends today; traditionalists may prefer the vernal equinox -

12:32 a.m. March 20.

By Hillaker's “very preliminary” figures, this was Iowa's 21st coldest winter of 138 for which good data exists. It was also the snowiest winter statewide since 1978-79.

Hillaker grants it may have seemed much worse than 21st-coldest.

“That doesn't sound that impressive, but usually we get a little break here or there,” he said.

Instead, the temperature in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City hasn't reached 40 degrees since Dec. 1, the season's warmest day. Through Thursday, it had been above freezing just two days in February in Cedar Rapids, five in Iowa City.

With temperatures forecast in the mid-to-upper 30s by next week, the worst may be over.

“The coldest weather for the foreseeable future appears to be behind us,” Hillaker said.

The predicted highs are only about average for the first week in March, “but that will still be an improvement from what we've been seeing,” Hillaker said. “We've been below normal for so long. The good news is, there's no snow on the horizon.”

But Hillaker noted it's not unheard-of to see subzero temperatures in March. Historically, the last date for a 32-degree reading is April 28 in Cedar Rapids, April 20 in Iowa City.