Let the stretch run to wide-open Iowa caucuses begin

By Sioux City Journal

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All Republican candidates for president should unfold their Iowa road maps and reacquaint themselves with the state from which the road to the 2012 general election begins because the contest here is wide open.

To this point, we have witnessed a marked - and perplexing - decline from past campaigns for president in the number of visits by candidates to our state, particularly to this decidedly Republican side of the state, but we should see the pace quicken over the next six weeks.

In fact, we can't imagine why we wouldn't.

The results of a Bloomberg News poll taken Nov. 10-12 and released showed Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in a statistical dead heat as the top choices of Iowans likely to attend Republican caucuses on Jan. 3.

To different degrees, the candidacy of each man would benefit from the momentum produced by a win in Iowa.

The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, shows support for Cain at 20 percent; Paul, 19 percent; Romney, 18 percent; Gingrich, 17 percent; Rick Perry, 7 percent; Michele Bachmann, 5 percent; and Rick Santorum, 3 percent

Not only do we anticipate more visits from the poll frontrunners as they jockey for position down the stretch, but we expect to see plenty more of Bachmann, who won the Republican Party Straw Poll in August, and Santorum because each needs a strong finish in Iowa to remain viable moving forward. In fact, in a recent editorial board meeting, Bachmann said she is “aiming for number one” in Iowa. In our view, Perry is the most difficult of the candidates for whom to make a prediction. We can easily see him reading the tea leaves and giving a token effort here the rest of the way, instead seeking a toehold somewhere else.

Particularly in a caucus system like ours, mobilizing your supporters to turn out in strong numbers is crucial. For those candidates who don't enjoy a strong organization in the state, it's too late to establish one, but it isn't too late for a candidate to motivate the faithful on his or her own. Sixty percent of the Bloomberg poll respondents said they could be persuaded to support someone other than their top choice and 10 percent remain undecided altogether. In other words, only 30 percent of respondents have made up their minds for good.

Another reason why the campaign for president should ignite in Iowa is the fact three debates are planned here between Dec. 10 and 19, including one in Sioux City. Those events alone should produce a blizzard of campaign activities in the state.

For many reasons, Iowa should be the place to be for the presidential campaigns between today and Jan. 3. We look forward to a spirited final push to the caucuses.