Clinton, Christie lead early Iowa presidential polling

UPDATE: Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Gov. Chris Christie are in a dead heat in an early look at Iowa voters' preferences in the 2016 presidential race.

A Quinnipiac University poll found Christie and Clinton tied at 41 percent. Not surprisingly, Clinton carries Democrats 82 to 8 percent, while Christie takes Republicans 80 to 8 percent and the two split independent voters 36 to 37 percent.  She wins women 47 to 37 percent, while Christie takes men 45 to 35 percent.

Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, found Christie's numbers impressive.

Christie's numbers are “not as good as Clinton's, but they are pretty good,” Brown said, adding that such low unfavorability numbers for someone as well-known as Christie is unusual. “He's made a good first impression on Iowans.”

The poll, released Monday, also found Clinton topping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, 46 to 39 percent.

Both Christie and Walker would beat Vice President Joe Biden if the election were today, according to the Quinnipiac poll of 1,256 registered voters July 15-17. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

Biden trails Christie 49 to 32 percent and Walker 39 percent to 42 percent.

“Quinnipiac University has tested Clinton against a variety of Republicans in a number of states and Christie seems to be running the best so far,” according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Christie's favorability ratio of almost 3-1 is impressive,” he continued. “The question is whether he can sustain it as he becomes better known. If so, he could be a strong contender in 2016.”

Christie and Walker replaced Sens. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, who were included in an earlier Quinnipiac poll of Iowa voters.

The 2016 numbers come as Quinnipiac finds that President Barack Obama is upside down in Iowa with 55 percent of those polled disapproving of his performance. Ninety percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents disapprove of Obama. Democratic voters approve of him by an 82 to 13 percent margin.

“Obama's problem in Iowa is with independent voters who disapprove of the way he is doing his job by more than 20 points,” Brown explained. “Since more Iowans consider themselves independents rather than members of one of the two major parties that is a significant problem for the president.”

Brown noted that Obama's numbers are trending down even as Iowans say the economy is in pretty good shape and getting better.

“Usually incumbents should be doing better when the economy is improving,” he said.

Two-thirds of those polled rated the economy excellent or good and one-third said it's getting better. Slightly more than half said it's staying the same.

Those are good numbers, Brown said, especially for Gov. Terry Branstad, who is expected to seek a sixth term next year.

The Iowa results compare to a 50 to 45 percent disapproval of Obama in a May 24 poll. Today, men disapprove 60 to 35 percent, compared to a 54 to 41 percent disapproval in May. Among women, 46 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove, compared to May when 48 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved.