CasinoClash 13 -- Meanwhile, in Warren County

We had our casino referendum fun in March. But Warren County voters will go to the polls a week from today to decide on allowing gambling in their county just south of Des Moines. And things are getting interesting.

Sure, no one's promised a water park for a no vote. But still, interesting.

Wild Rose Entertainment, which also owns a casinos in Emmetsburg and Clinton, wants to build a $145 million facility northwest of Norwalk on Highway 28. It would include gambling an events center, a 150-room hotel and a bowling alley. Planners had to lower the height of the planned hotel due to a nearby airport. Backers are promising that the facility will create 600 jobs, 250 construction jobs...you know the drill.

Like Cedar Rapids' proposal, a Warren County casino likely would take business from nearby operations, in this case casinos in Osceola and Altoona. Unlike Cedar Rapids, the proposed casino would provide 4.5 percent of its revenues to local non-profits. Cedar Rapids' contribution would be 3 percent.

In Linn County, Link Strategies was the strategic brains behind Just Say No Casino. In Warren County, Link's outfit is reportedly working for Vote Yes, aka Warren County Citizens for Good Jobs.

Ah, politics.

And on Monday, we got came news that another well-known political outfit is getting involved:

The Family Leader, a socially conservative activist group, is raising money to oppose a May 7 ballot measure that if approved would clear the way for gaming in Warren County.

Greg Baker, the Family Leader's political director, said the group had received multiple requests from county residents asking for help in defeating the measure.

...

The Family Leader has been active in opposing gambling measures since the '90s as the Iowa Family Policy Center, Baker said.

The group, founded by Bob Vander Plaats, is holding a meeting this week and is raising money for the vote no'ers. Thankfully, family leaders were not active here.

Last night, the Norwalk School Board voted to take no position on the casino vote.

It will be interesting to see what happens Tuesday. If the referendum passes, there's a good chance that the Racing and Gaming Commission will be looking at Linn and Warren counties' casino proposals at roughly the same time. In the past, the commission has preferred to combine multiple license applications into a single process, with market studies etc. I don't think the Norwalk plan will have much direct impact on Linn County's chances, although I also can't say that the proposals won't affect one another at all.

I do know residents from both counties may be seeing a lot or each other at commission meetings in the coming months. Be nice.

Past market studies have suggested that the Des Moines-area market can sustain more gambling, and the Warren County casino would be run by a veteran Iowa firm.

I've heard from some local readers here that Linn County is a lead pipe lock for a license. The fix is in, they say. And they may be right about the outcome. Linn County's chances are good, perhaps very good.

But I think anyone who believes that the commission will somehow ignore or skew market studies to the advantage of Linn County, and to the possible detriment to multiple existing casinos, doesn't fully understand the clout of the existing casino cartel.

I've watched this process unfold during the last two big expansion cycles. Generally, if any "fix" is in, it's to protect existing cash cows first. Maybe that's changed, but with hundreds of millions of dollars in investments and tax revenues in play, I doubt it.