Moody’s economist disputes C.R. job prediction

A recent article by a senior editor at Forbes.com quoted a report by Moody's Economy.com as predicting 14.2 percent job growth for Cedar Rapids over the next three years.

While Kurt Badenhausen of Forbes wrote that Cedar Rapids is bucking the trend of a tepid, jobless recovery, the author of the Moody's report claims no such prediction was made.

“I think the Cedar Rapids unemployment rate (6.3 percent in October) will remain basically unchanged through next year,” said Moody's Economist Sunayna Mehra. “I think Cedar Rapids is positioned to experience growth in future years with its avionics, food processing and insurance businesses.”

Badenhausen said the 14.2 percent growth in employment was based on Moody's estimates for Cedar Rapids metropolitan area employment in 2010 and 2013.

“The Moody's estimates suggest that there really won't be a whole lot of employment growth in 2011. It's really in 2012 and 2013,” Badenhausen said. “Economists have these dreams of dramatic growth in 2012 and 2013.”

Badenhausen said Moody's was revising the Cedar Rapids data at the time his article appeared on Forbes.com

“The article did not appear in Forbes magazine,” Badenhausen said. “It was part of a series to crowd source what readers think we should know about in 2011.”

Badenhausen said a similar prediction that the Cedar Rapids metro economy will grow by 30 percent between 2010 and 2013 also was based on Moody's estimates of gross domestic product by metropolitan area.

Mehra cited low living and business costs along with Rockwell Collins' avionics technology and insurance industry cash flow as community strengths. On the flip side, she noted that Cedar Rapids population growth trails the nation, the impact of technology reducing overall employment and the large share of traditional industrial employment.