Picking the next Super Bowl champion without bias

This is not the match-up I'm rooting for this fall. It's not the game I want to see in February. But I think it's the Super Bowl that's going to happen.

Super Bowl XLIV: Atlanta beats New England

It doesn't take guts to pick New England. With Tom Brady two years ago, the Patriots were 30 seconds from the first unbeaten season in 35 years. The Patriots set records for points scored, and Brady threw 50 touchdown passes. Now, one year after Brady suffered a season-ending knee shredding, I think the Patriots can put some bailing wire and sheet metal around a revamped defense and get back to the big one again.

As for Atlanta, I recognize the Falcons are a bit of an odd pick. But Matt Ryan is something special at quarterback. As a rookie he played like a veteran. He battered the Chicago defense all day last year in a last-second win. He led the Falcons to the wild card after most thought the team was headed for Detroit-like depths. This year, with Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner and newly acquired Tony Gonzalez, I think the Falcons will get it done. It would make an interesting match-up with the former Boston College quarterback playing against Boston's team.

As for the rest of the league, here's what I see:

AFC EAST

1. New England 12-4
2. N.Y. Jets 11-5
3. Miami 7-9
4. Buffalo 7-9

AFC NORTH

1. Pittsburgh 14-2
2. Baltimore 9-7
3. Cleveland 8-8
4. Cincinnati 4-12

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston 10-6
2. Indianapolis 10-6
3. Tennessee 7-9
4. Jacksonville 6-10

AFC WEST

1. San Diego 11-5
2. Kansas City 4-12
3. Denver 4-12
4. Oakland 4-12

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia 11-5
2. NY Giants 9-7
3. Dallas 9-7
4. Washington 8-8

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay 12-4
2. Minnesota 11-5
3. Chicago 10-6
4. Detroit 3-13

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta 11-5
2. Carolina 8-8
3. New Orleans 7-9
4. Tampa Bay 5-11

NFC  WEST

1. Seattle 9-7
2. Arizona 8-8
3. San Francisco 5-11
4. St. Louis 2-14

AFC Playoffs (home team in capital letters)

Wild card: NY Jets over HOUSTON; Indianapolis over SAN DIEGO

Divisional round: NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets; Indianapolis over PITTSBURGH

Championship: NEW ENGLAND over Indianapolis

NFC Playoffs (home team in capital letters)

Wild card: Minnesota over SEATTLE; PHILADELPHIA over Chicago

Divisional round: ATLANTA over Philadelphia; GREEN BAY over Minnesota

Championship: Atlanta over GREEN BAY

Super Bowl XLIV: Atlanta over New England

Trends: Six 2008 playoff teams drop out of the postseason, which is nothing unusual. Since 1996, at least five new teams enter the postseason annually. In 2003, eight new teams entered the postseason. Last year's postseason featured seven new playoff teams.

League MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay

Coach of the year: Rex Ryan, New York Jets

It wouldn't surprise me if ... Indianapolis really struggles. With a new head coach and key assistants departing, the Colts could slip to a losing season. ... Detroit improves to win as many as six games. After a horrible stretch (and stench) of football this decade, the Lions finally have a foundation set at the skill positions. They're a year or two away, but they could be real good in, say, 2011.

It would surprise me if ... Anyone besides San Diego wins the AFC West. The league's western divisions have been awful lately, but the AFC West is perhaps the worst division of all-time, outside of San Diego. ...

Brett Favre lasts the entire season. Favre is in position to break the NFL record for consecutive starts at 282 (by Vikings DE Jim Marshall) but he needed a complete off-season to stay healthy at age 40.