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Chains hinder by others selling perceived better-quality
Bloomberg News
Jun. 2, 2017 1:51 pm, Updated: Jun. 3, 2017 9:32 am
Fresh ingredients and sleek design made fast-casual restaurants a darling of the millennial customers every business strives to attract.
But the category's once-enviable growth looks like it's hit a plateau. This year, U.S. fast-casual sales growth will slow to between 6 percent and 7 percent from about 8 percent in 2016, according to industry consultant Pentallect. In each of the previous five years, sales had grown between 10 percent and 11 percent.
'The segment has become saturated and has some issues,” said Bob Goldin, a Chicago-based Pentallect partner. 'There are signs of maturity.”
There's turmoil throughout the industry. Noodles & Co. and Pie Five, which sells personalized pizzas, are closing locations. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers abandoned its fast-casual Burger Works venture, shuttering outlets and re-branding others.
Mexican-food seller Qdoba is delaying new openings amid falling sales. Sandwich maker Potbelly said it expects negative sales for the year as its largest-volume restaurant closes. And Zoe's Kitchen has posted slower growth lately.
The fast-casual genre got rolling in the 1990s, with Boston Market, Fazoli's and Einstein Bros. luring diners with convenient and affordable meals that were a step above fast food. More chains popped up, many of them went public, and stock prices skyrocketed.
But better-quality fast food for less money, companies that push cook-it-yourself meal kits and the homelike comfort of mom-and-pop restaurants are taking a bite out of sales.
'There's some pretty strong pressure against the fast casuals,” said Jean Birch, CEO of take-and-bake pizza chain Papa Murphy's Holdings. Birch, who previously led IHOP, said McDonald's and Wendy's are doing a better job on quality - and have lower prices.
Fast-casual restaurant stocks lost 14 percent last year, according to the Bloomberg Fast-Casual Restaurants Index, compared with a 0.9 percent gain for the S & P 500 Restaurants Index.
Americans are increasingly looking for the convenience of delivered food, as well as cheaper prices, especially after a bout of deflation made buying groceries less expensive. Fast-casual meals usually carry a minimum $10 price tag, and the companies have largely lagged in delivery and mobile ordering. Big pizza chains have offered mobile-ordering technology for years.
'The dollar is going to a lot of different places,” Goldin said.
Reuters Several fast-casual restaurants, such as Chipotle Mexican Grill, are being hurt by lower grocery prices and other dining-out options, among other factors.