Late-season run could vault Iowa into NCAA tournament discussion

IOWA CITY - The numbers say no. Their hearts say yes. History says ... maybe?

Iowa's NCAA tournament hopes are dim, yet not totally dashed. Based on their current status, the Hawkeyes (16-14, 8-9 Big Ten) are unlikely to merit much consideration toward the 68-team tournament. But neither did Penn State one year ago.

The Nittany Lions finished the regular season 16-13 and 9-9 in Big Ten play. Penn State then won three Big Ten Tournament games before losing the tournament finale. With a 19-14 resume, the Nittany Lions qualified for the NCAA tournament as a No. 10 seed.

Should Iowa beat Northwestern in Saturday's regular-season finale, Coach Fran McCaffery said his team deserves consideration for a possible NCAA at-large bid. In fact, he doesn't think the Hawkeyes should have to go as far as Penn State to secure a spot.

“You know, certainly if we make a little run here at the end, then we'll be one of the hotter teams, and playing at a point where I think we deserve to be in,” McCaffery said. “You know, they always say they look at RPI and then they say they don't look at RPI. So it's almost like a justification to go one way or the other on you sometimes.

“I think what you do is you look at, ‘OK, what kind of league are you in.' ‘Well, we're in the best league.' That's a fact. ‘So now, how did you do in that league?' ‘Well, we did pretty well.' And then you go from there.”

Penn State's RPI, a measurement based on wins, losses and strength-of-schedule that often determines NCAA Tournament invitations, stood at 39 last year after the Big Ten Tournament. Iowa now sits at 124, which is squarely in NIT country. Last year Penn State had to overcome a 10-point home loss to Maine, which had a losing record and an RPI of 215. None of Penn State's non-conference foes played in the NCAA tournament.

Iowa's issues begin with its non-conference schedule, which consisted of seven games against teams with RPIs greater than 200. Plus, Iowa lost by 16 points at home to Campbell (16-15), which has an RPI of 210. But that loss alone shouldn't be enough to keep the Hawkeyes out of the NCAA tournament, senior point guard Bryce Cartwright said.

“I know when I look at the overall thing, we have one bad loss against Campbell,” Cartwright said. “Other than that I don't see any other bad losses to me. We've got a lot of good wins; not a lot of people are doing that in the country as far as ranked wins. So that's my reasoning.

“I think we still have a lot of work to do. We've got to keep winning.”

But there's more to Iowa's season than RPI and a long-shot NCAA tournament berth. Iowa has averaged nearly 13,000 fans per Big Ten home game, and only 1,500 tickets remain for Saturday's game. A victory against Northwestern secures a winning season and a non-losing Big Ten campaign for the first time since 2007. It's likely Iowa will compete in a postseason tournament regardless of its final record for the first time since 2006. It's indisputable progress, but there's more work to do, McCaffery said.

“We're in a position where we at least have to be part of the conversation,” he said.