U.S. soybean estimate down from last month

According to today's U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop report, soybean production is forecast at 3.046 billion bushels, down 14 million bushels from the October estimate of 3.06 billion bushels and down from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010. The average soybean yield for the United States is now estimated at 41.3 bushels per acre, down .2 bushel from last month and down 2.2 bushels from 2010.

For Iowa, production is estimated at 467.6 million bushels, with an average yield of 50.5 bushels per acre. That is unchanged from October and .5 bushel lower than 2010.

USDA estimates for corn production are for a total of 12.310 billion bushels, down 123 million bushels from October and down from 12.447 billion bushels in 2010. U.S. average corn yield was reduced to 146.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushel from October and down 6.1 bushel from 2010.

For Iowa, corn production is estimated at 2.334 billion bushels, up 27 million bushels from October's estimate of 2.307 billion. Iowa's average yield was raised to 171 bushels per acre, compared to the October estimate of 169 bushels per acre. That is 6 bushels higher than 2010.

Regarding yields, ISA President Dean Coleman, a soybean farmer from Humboldt, says, “The drop in overall U.S. soybean production reflects the drought in the South. In much of Iowa, we saw pretty good yields, especially considering that we lost some volume to low moisture content. I harvested soybeans that were drier than I've ever seen before.”

Coleman adds, “Now that we are getting a firmer number on production, we will be looking at usage and exports, watching to see if China and our other export customers will step back into this market and buy more soybeans.”

ISA Director of Market Development Grant Kimberley agrees that exports are fluid and the world situation will be important to watch. “Though Europe is not a demand driver for soybeans, the current mess in Europe may affect the value of the dollar.

“Though stocks are projected to be higher, if prices drop, we expect China will most likely step in and buy,” Kimberley says.

Both Coleman and Kimberley say the ratio in corn and soybean prices will be important to watch this winter, if soybeans are to maintain acres.

The Iowa Soybean Association develops policies and programs that help farmers expand profit opportunities while promoting environmentally sensitive production using the soybean checkoff and other resources. The Association is made up of more than 8,000 farmer members and is governed by an elected volunteer board of 21 farmers.