Loras Poll shows Republican Blum with slight lead in Iowa’s 1st District

CEDAR RAPIDS - Republican Rod Blum has taken a slight lead in Iowa's 1st District U.S. House race, according to a Loras College Poll released Monday.

In the race to succeed Rep. Bruce Braley, Blum led state Rep. Pat Murphy 43.6 percent to 42.1 percent, with eight voting days remaining.

The Dubuque businessman's lead is within the margin of error, and Loras points out there are a substantial number of undecided voters - 12.1 percent.

Still, Loras Associate Professor of Politics Christopher Budzisz, who directs the Loras College Poll, called the results noteworthy, in part, because Democrats have a voter registration advantage in the northeast Iowa District that includes Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Cedar Falls-Waterloo and Marshalltown. According to the Iowa Secretary of State Office, the active voter registration split is 33 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican and 39 percent no party.

'It's crunchtime,” Budzisz said, 'and I imagine these latest poll results will only add to the intensity of the efforts of the campaigns, especially given the substantial number of undecided remaining.”

'The conventional wisdom is that it is a difficult year to be a Democratic candidate,” he said, but Murphy still is in the race. 'The final week will be fascinating to watch.”

Other races for the U.S. House find the two incumbents with sizable leads going into the final week of campaigning. Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack in the 2nd District and GOP Rep. Steve King in the 4th maintain similar advantages over their challengers to those seen in the September Loras College Poll.

In the 3rd District, which like the first is an open seat race, Republican David Young has a small lead over Democrat Staci Appel - 45.7 percent to 43.6, according to Loras.

Budzisz said the 1st District race may reflect, to some degree, voters' dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama. Less than 41 percent approve of his handling of the job, while 52 percent disapprove.

'National context can help shape campaigns,” he said. And may have affected how the campaigns have been conducted.

'Whether it has been the use of issues connected to the president, such as the Affordable Care Act, or the theme that Washington is ‘broken,' campaigns have tried to effectively navigate this discontent and concern,” Budzisz said.

The Loras College Poll surveyed 1,121 likely 2014 general election voters across Iowa's four congressional districts. Ballot tests within the districts have a 5.85 percent margin of error, with statewide results having a 2.93 percent margin of error. The survey was conducted Oct. 21-24, 2014.

The survey was conducted using live operators calling both landlines (80 percent) and cellphones (20 percent).