ChetChase 2010 - The Week, The Poll

Iowa's race for governor, in brilliant Black and White.

1. Here's Looking at You, Chet -- The film credits fiasco wouldn't go away. But will it really amount to a hill of beans in this crazy 2010 campaign?

Culver is betting that tough words and swift action will make it go away, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of his term. He's got the attorney general and state auditor on the case. Resignations have been accepted and pinks slips followed.

All of this came after the disclosure that the Iowa Film Office handed out tens of millions of dollars in tax credits to filmmakers with almost no oversight. A well-meaning effort to promote Iowa as a setting for movies and TV projects turned into a wild cash grab. Oops.

"Iowans will not be played for suckers,"  Culver said, defiantly, in Cedar Rapids this week.

Still, I feel a little suckery.

All the while our state leaders are whining about budget woes, the film office is handing out millions for vital purchases such as a Land Rover. The credits, which cover up to 25 percent of project expenditures and 25 percent of investments, could legally go for things such as aircraft, cars, hair styling, makeup etc., as long it's all part of making movie magic.

Did any lawmakers who voted overwhelmingly for this ever envision the day when Iowans were told they've helped pay for enough hair care to make John Edwards blush?

In good times, fine, play Cecil B. Culver. But in a serious economic downturn, when 114,000 people are unemployed, teachers are getting pink slips, local taxes are rising, a state university tuition increase is being planned and many scrimping Iowans can't even afford to go see a movie, movie tax credits are a luxury we can't afford.

Take over the soap box, Christian Fong:

"I think the money could be better spent someplace else," Fong, a Republican candidate for governor, said Thursday. "It's a priorities thing.

"Look, everyone likes to see Iowa portrayed in a good way on the big screen...But there's a time and place for it. And 2009 was not that time," Fong said. "Not with out budget in the shambles that it's in."

The much larger issue is can Iowa afford a tangled web of special interest tax credits? Call them investments or giveaways, but they'll add up to nearly $500 million in 2013, according to the Iowa Department of Revenue.

In many cases, we have no idea what we're getting for all this money. Some state lawmakers and policy wonks have been sounding sirens about this issue for years. For them, the film fiasco is Christmas morning.

“We're throwing around several hundred million dollars here with inadequate oversight, in my judgment,” Sen. Joe Bolkcom, D-Iowa City, told Radio Iowa's O. Kay Henderson.

Republican hopeful Bob Vander Plaats said he would wipe out most tax credits and plow the savings into cutting taxes on businesses and commercial property.

The film credit scandal will probably die down, but serious questions about Culver's budget stewardship won't. And as time goes by, all these hills of beans could add up to a mountain the governor can't overcome.

2. TerryWatch - The week brought still more polls with good news for retro Republicans hoping to bring back Branstad.

On Thursday, a Rasmussen telephone survey of 500 Iowans shows Branstad leading Culver in a hypothetical match up 54-34. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Rasmussen's poll even has Culver losing to Vander Plaats 43-39, although that's within the margin of error.

An Iowa Poll commissioned by The Des Moines Register showed that 70 percent of Iowans approve of the job Branstad did during his four terms as governor from 1983-1999. Still, only 48 percent of Iowans think it's a good idea for him to run again. That number rises to 60 percent among Republicans, good but not great.

The Iowa GOP is sort of in a New Coke dilemma. The party spent the last decade or so changing its brand by lurching toward it's Bill Slaierian wing. How'd that work out at the ballot box? Just ask U.S. Sen. Reed, U.S. Rep. Hartsuch and House Speaker Danny Carroll. 

You could also ask Gov. Nussle, who, instead of broadening his message, was still trying desperately to convince his party's fickle base of his conservative credentials even in the final days of the 2006 race.

Now, a sizable number of Republicans who are tired of losing suddenly have a taste for Coke Classic, a much more popular brand electorally speaking. But does it still have any fizz?

Not every Republican thinks so. Take former DMR columnist and loyal Republican Chuck Offenburger. He likes Terry, but thinks his comeback sends a bad message about Iowa to the next generation of leaders:

If I were a young Iowan age 40 or younger, I'd be asking myself right now what it says about my own career opportunities, if we've got Baby Boomers refusing to leave the stage like this.

That's one thing a Branstad candidacy for governor represents.

He is 62 years old. (Yes, so am I, but I'm semi-retired, not running for anything and thrilled to be watching the next generations take over leadership in all areas of life.)

One person who has reportedly been giving Branstadbig time encouragement to run for governor again is retired insurance executive Gary Kirke, of West Des Moines, who is about 66. The “Draft Branstad” effort, which is already running radio ads all over Iowa, is headed by former state legislator Sandy Greiner, of Keota, who is 64. Branstad himself asked a former political ally Richard Schwarm to go out and do some contact work across Iowa and determine what the climate would be for political and fundraising success. Schwarm was state chairman of the Republican Party back in 1994, and I think he's about 60 years old.

What a Grand OLD Party!

But, ironically, only three in 10 Iowans over 65 in the Register's survey think a Branstad comeback is a good idea.

Branstad still says he'll decide in October whether he wants to jump in. So the clock starts ticking Thursday.

3. Look Ma, No Press -Christian Fong announced a 17-city campaign swing this week. But at the end of his release to the media, his campaign noted that no media would be allowed to cover his events:

**The events are closed to the press, but Christian will be available prior to each event to speak with media.

So what gives? Is the political newcomer sick of us already?

Fong says it's not for his protection, but for his audience.

"If people in the room know that press is sitting there, does it inhibit them from sharing freely with me because they're afraid they're going to get quoted in their local paper?" Fong said.

Of course, this sort of thing makes me uneasy. Running for a Iowa's highest public office really shouldn't be a private matter. I also think he underestimates Iowans' courage to stand up and be heard in public. This is Iowa, the caucus state, people are used to it.

It also makes me wonder if openness would be a priority of a Gov. Fong. This is also the campaign that trumpeted its $100,000 fundraising total a while back but wouldn't disclose donors.

And really, should a candidate unk0wn to most Iowans campaign behind closed doors? I guess that's for his staff to decide.

4. Be the Poll -- Should Iowa have a film tax credit program or not. Even if it's cleaned up and proper oversight is put in place. Do we need it? Is the benefit of attracting projects worth the money?

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