Scenarios aplenty as Hawkeyes face Big Ten finale

IOWA CITY -- The e-mail came at 2:27 Friday morning.

Iowa women's basketball sports information director Aaron Blau spent half the night crunching a handful of Sunday scenarios that will determine the Hawkeyes' Big Ten tournament seed.

This much is pretty simple: Beat Indiana, and the Hawkeyes have a first-round bye. Lose, and they don't.

"There's a lot riding on this game," said Iowa Coach Lisa Bluder. "There are so many weird tie-breaking scenarios right now, we're not sure what happens.  We do know if we win, I think we're guaranteed at least a first-round bye."

Iowa (21-7 overall, 9-6 Big Ten) is in the middle of a logjam in the upper-middle portion of the conference standings; only 1 1/2 games separate second place and seventh place.

A win against the Hoosiers (9-18, 3-12) -- tipoff is 1 p.m. Sunday at Bloomington -- would guarantee a top-five seed, which would give the Hawkeyes a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament next week.

The first round is Thursday, the quarterfinals are Friday.

Here are potential scenarios:

* If Iowa wins, if Ohio State beats Wisconsin at home and Michigan wins at Illinois, Iowa plays Ohio State in the 4-vs.-5 game. This probably is the most likely story.

* If Iowa wins, Ohio State wins and Michigan loses, Ohio State moves up to No. 3 and Iowa plays Wisconsin in the 4-vs.-5 game.

* If Iowa wins and Wisconsin beats Ohio State, Iowa plays Michigan in the 4-vs.-5 game.

* If Iowa loses, the Hawkeyes probably drop all the way to No. 7 and will play the No. 10 seed Thursday.

Judging by the first meeting between the Hawkeyes and the Hoosiers, that appears unlikely. Iowa won, 71-51, at Iowa City on Jan. 16. Indiana has dropped 12 of its last 13 games after starting the league season 2-0.

Iowa has won four straight, including an 83-64 win over Illinois on Thursday, a game in which it outscored the Illini 30-10 in the final 7 1/2 minutes. Jaime Printy scored a career-high 32 points.

"Every game from now on is on the road.  We have to be at our best playing on the road now," Bluder said.