California adds itself to ‘Super Tuesday’

Wanting more influence in the presidential nominating process, California last week approved a plan to move its 2020 primary election up to early March.

Whether a more prominent role for the nation's most populous state impacts how presidential candidates campaign in Iowa remains to be seen.

Democratic California Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation that set the state's next presidential primary election for March 3, 2020 - about three months earlier.

That places California's primary on the first Super Tuesday with seven other states, following only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

'Candidates will not be able to ignore the largest, most diverse state in the nation as they seek our country's highest office,” California Secretary of State Alex Padilla told the Los Angeles Times.

With California's massive delegate haul looming after the early voting states, could that alter how candidates participate in Iowa and its first-in-the-nation caucuses?

Dennis Goldford, a political-science professor at Drake University and co-author of 'The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event,” said California's move actually makes Iowa and the other early states more important.

If candidates want a shot at California's prize, they first will have to perform well in Iowa, Goldford said.

'Anybody moving forward, closer to Iowa, makes Iowa even more important,” he said. 'Which is sort of counterintuitive, but they just have not realized that over the years.”

Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, agrees.

'Now you have to get past Iowa to get to California,” he said. 'I think it puts more emphasis on the carve-out states.”

While that could be true, California's looming presence seems likely to take at least some of the candidates' focus off Iowa in the lead-up to the caucuses, said Tim Hagle, a political-science professor at the University of Iowa.

With such a big delegate haul to be won on Super Tuesday, candidates will devote at least some of their early resources - staffing, campaigning and advertising - to California.

'Because California is such a big state, it's going to require candidates to come up with a stronger organization and a lot more money a lot faster. And because California is such a big prize, regardless of the party ... they're going to have to spend more time there, which means less time in smaller states like Iowa and New Hampshire,” Hagle said.

One national political scientist thinks the impact on the early states will be minimal. Josh Putnam, who specializes in campaigns and elections and writes a political blog, said Super Tuesday already was a big deal without California.

'That date was going to demand great fundraising and organization with or without California being there. I don't think that takes much of the luster off Iowa or any of the other carve-out states,” he wrote in an email. 'But I also don't know that it makes Iowa any more important than it was in a similar position in 2016. Iowa will still be first ...”

Putnam said skipping the early states to focus on Super Tuesday states will not be a viable strategy for the hopefuls.

'Candidates have to organize for the first contest if they want to play in the second and subsequent ones,” he said.

Erin Murphy covers Iowa politics and government. His email address is erin.murphy@lee.net.