Projection shows Iowa COVID-19 deaths slowing

The Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation, based at the University of Washington, predicts Iowa COVID-19 infections and deaths will continue to taper through June 1.

By May 1, COVID-19 will have led to the deaths of 5,911 Iowans and 2.4 Iowans will be dying each day, the institute estimates.

The total death toll will increase to 5,960 by June 1, according to the projection, but the pace slows to less than one death per day. The institute estimates use of intensive care beds at Iowa hospitals will fall to 7.1 beds needed May 1 and 2.89 beds June 1.

The institute estimates total infections per day - including people not tested - at 846 for March 8, but down to 172 on May 1 and 65 on June 1.

The major caveat for these predictions is human behavior.

The institute projects worst-case scenario numbers that reflect the spread of COVID-19 variants, increased mobility of the population and declining mask use. Under these projections, infection rates are more than double the standard prediction and more Iowans die from the disease.

The institute also has projections for 95 percent public mask use in the state, which show fewer infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, Iowa's unlikely to experience that level of mask use, especially as more Iowans are vaccinated and people grow weary of the restrictions.

The institute, which previously was cited by White House coronavirus advisers, predicted in March 2020 that Iowa would reach what then sounded like an astounding 777 deaths by early August. Iowa actually hit that mark earlier than predicted, on July 16.