Hoops breakdown: UNI vs Illinois State

Since the game between these two teams on Jan. 25, Illinois State has joined Northern Iowa in the top half of the conference and had found a rhythm as a team up until a road loss at Southern Illinois on Saturday. The No. 12/13 Panthers (22-2, 11-1 Missouri Valley Conference), however have vaulted into the national discussion and are staring down a regular-season finale with Wichita State for the regular season conference crown.

The Redbirds (15-9, 7-5) represent the toughest test for UNI in the interim, with a number of different players who can cause trouble for the Panthers. Tipoff of the rematch is set for 7 p.m. on Wednesday night at the McLeod Center.

Here's a breakdown of the matchup between the two teams:

Player to watch

Northern Iowa:

Marvin Singleton – Predicting who's going to step up alongside Seth Tuttle each game is a bit like predicting the lottery. UNI has so many different weapons to deploy, it almost always comes down to getting play started and seeing what – aside from Tuttle – the opposition has decided to focus on. This time around, rebounding will be of utmost importance – Illinois State abused UNI last time, especially on the offensive glass – so Singleton is the guy the Panthers will need to step up. He's the second leading rebounder on the team at 5.5 rebounds per game and has an offensive rebounding percentage (KenPom) of 12.2, which puts him 110th of 2,189 eligible players in the nation. If he can do the work he's been doing on the glass, it'll make for a much easier day for UNI than last time against Illinois State.

Illinois State:

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell – Akoon-Purcell hasn't been a starter for the Redbirds in conference play, but he is used on the highest percentage of possessions (28.9 percent) on the team. When he's on the floor, Illinois State is likely to run something through him and use his 6-foot-5 frame on the wing. He missed seven straight games in the middle of this season – including the first two MVC games, one of which was a 70-62 loss at Wichita State – with a broken hand, and has averaged 10.5 points in the nine games since he's been back. He rebounds well at 5.7 per game – had seven rebounds last time out against UNI – and has a true shooting percentage of 53.2 percent, according to KenPom. He'll provide a tough matchup for whoever guards him on the perimeter – likely Jeremy Morgan.

Strengths

Northern Iowa:

Decision-making – The way UNI approaches practice and games is a direct reflection of their leadership, and Ben Jacobson has hammered home smart decisions on both ends of the floor. When Drake went on a run early in the second half on Saturday, UNI had gotten away from smart decisions offensively. After a timeout, UNI ran a set play that resulted in a 3 from a smart pass and a few possessions later, Wyatt Lohaus got an assist on a great pass underneath to Singleton after driving baseline. Plays like that have defined this season and made them so efficient.

Illinois State:

Offensive rebounding and defensive efficiency – UNI has gotten all the attention among MVC teams for its defense and efficiency on that end, but ILS has been more than solid defensively this season. The Redbirds allow 0.931 points per possession, ranked 32nd in the nation and 3rd just in conference games. On the other end, they rank 16th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage at 37.9 and lead the MVC in the category in conference games. If ILS has both things working well in the same game, the team is hard to beat.

Weaknesses

Northern Iowa:

Converting in transition – The Panthers are certainly capable of moving the ball in transition – both Wes Washpun and Deon Mitchell are quick and can handle the ball, plus the UNI big men can move well. But they often abandon a transition look quickly in favor of slowing it down – often a wise decision, evidenced by their offensive efficiency – and when they don't, most often the try doesn't result in points. They've failed to score in transition three times in conference and have only had more than one transition basket twice in conference. With how ILS rebounds, finishing in those spots will be vital.

Illinois State:

Turnovers and consistency – When the Redbirds are on, they play well enough to be in the conversation of best teams in the conference. The problem is, they don't do it consistently enough to firmly place themselves there permanently. For instance, ILS won three straight – two of which being dominant wins over Missouri State and Evansvile – then followed it up with a loss at Southern Illinois in which they turned the ball over 16 times and shot 37 percent. They average 13.5 turnovers per game overall and in conference. Sloppiness with the ball makes inconsistency easy.

Northern Iowa wins if…

the Panthers can control the glass and be efficient on offense. It's likely the Redbirds are going to once again for UNI into limited opportunities offensively – UNI had right around 26 possessions (!), depending on your formula for calculating that number last time out against ILS. So making the most of those chances will be paramount. In addition, Jacobson pounded home the point again that the Panthers need to rebound better. The Redbirds had three times as many chances last time just by controlling the offensive glass. Reverse that, and it's 12 wins in a row.

Illinois State wins if…

the Redbirds can consistently force the Panthers into bad shots and keep the ball out of Seth Tuttle's hands. As mentioned above, last time, ILS put UNI in a ton of bad situations and as a result turned them over early and often. Empty possessions are bad for any team, but even more so for a low-possession team like UNI. Empty possessions also mean Tuttle didn't have a chance to score or facilitate a score. If ILS can force turnovers or a bad look late in the shot clock, there could be an upset in the McLeod Center on Wednesday.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com