Iowa game analysis

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

When walk-on cornerback Ricky Weina started for Sherrick McManis last week, he became the 20th different player to start on the Wildcats' defense this season. He also was the ninth different player to start in NU's secondary. The Hawkeyes have had their bouts of adversity, but the ‘Cats have a team-wide heart attack as far as health goes.

The secondary has been brutalized. The foursome of cornerbacks McManis and Jordan Mabin and safeties Brendan Smith and Brad Phillips give Northwestern a tough and group. McManis reinjured a quadriceps against Indiana and didn't play against Penn State. Phillips, who landed the killshot on Shonn Greene last season, has been slowed with a shoulder injury. Smith had surgery on a broken thumb, but managed to play against Penn State. Safety Brian Peters played with a cast on his broken left hand.

McManis is arguably the biggest loss. He recorded interceptions in three straight games. He was ranked 10th nationally in passes defended (1.33 pg.) and 16th in interceptions at the time of his latest injury, hurt his leg against Indiana and has missed the last six-plus quarters of action. “I saw Sherrick (McManis) run around a little bit (Monday), so I'm feeling good about some of those guys,” NU coach Pat Fitzgerald said.

The Cats' front four is experienced and talented. Defensive end Corey Wootton was a pain in the Hawkeyes' thigh pad last season, picking up a sack and applying constant pressure on right tackle Kyle Calloway. The two will be matched up again today. The 6-foot-7, 280-pounder tore an ACL against Missouri in the Alamo Bowl last December. He's back from that, but he missed two games this season with an ankle injury. End Vince Brown, who turned an ankle against Penn State, leads NU D-linemen with three sacks.

Outside linebacker Quentin Davie does a ton for the Cats, leading them in tackles (66), sacks (4, three against Miami-Ohio) and QB hurries. Defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz isn't afraid to blitz and likely will be aggressive. Against Penn State, NU attacked the edges with corner blitzes. Northwestern averages 2.33 sacks a game, sixth in the Big Ten and 45th nationally.

Last season, Northwestern broke a 13-year-old record for rushing yards allowed a game, 126.4 yards. With three games remaining in 2009, the Wildcats are giving up just 122.9 yards per game. Northwestern has held three 2009 opponents to less than 100 yards.

Iowa probably can't dig itself any deeper of a hole than it did last week against Indiana. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi's four third-quarter interceptions contributed to a 24-14 deficit in the fourth quarter. You know the rest. Iowa exploded for 28 points in the fourth and won going away.

Can't really fault Stanzi's aggressiveness. Iowa trailed and needed points. He saw wideout Derrell Johnson-Koulianos wide-open for what would've been touchdowns except for that 17 mph wind. Can't fault the aggressiveness, but the decision making wasn't what it needed to be.

The two positives out of the Indiana victory were the flawless execution in the fourth quarter and the running game's dominance in the final period.

On the 92-yard TD pass to Marvin McNutt, Stanzi placed the ball exactly where it needed to be and a striding McNutt booked into the end zone. The 66-yarder wasn't a bootleg, but a play-action fake with perfect pocket around Stanzi and a wide-open Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who toed the sideline and made one cut to the end zone.

With the wind, you have to think this was the anomaly for Stanzi. Going into Indiana, he had thrown 87 straight without a pick. With the wind, it was an anomaly.

Iowa made Indiana pay for aggressive play against the run. When IU respected the pass, freshman running back Brandon Wegher took advantage, gaining 73 of his career-best 118 yards, including a 27-yard TD run to close out IU, in the fourth quarter.

That showed if Stanzi proves his arm can beat you and teams play Iowa's run game honestly, the Hawkeyes can finish off teams with the run.

Advantage: Iowa

When the Wildcats have the ball

Saying quarterback Mike Kafka is the fulcrum for Northwestern's offense is like saying the smile is kind of a big deal on the Mona Lisa. The senior is responsible for 69.6 percent of NU's yardage, accounting for 2,443 of 3,415 yards. He played less than half the game in the Wildcats' 34-13 loss to Penn State on Saturday and still tied his backup, Dan Persa, for the NU lead in rushing with 42 yards.

He's Northwestern's leading rusher with 248 yards and six touchdowns. Even though he played less than a half Saturday, he remains the Big Ten's leader in total offense and passing yardage. He leads the Big Ten in completions (23.7 a game) and completion percentage (66.8).

He grabbed his left leg after a run in the second quarter last week and didn't return, leaving the game with a strained hamstring. Monday, NU Coach Pat Fitzgerald said he expects Kafka, a 6-foot-3, 215-pounder, to be ready for the Hawkeyes.

Kafka had Penn State, which, by the way, has turned into a killing machine after losing to Iowa, sweating. When Kafka left the game with 8:15 remaining in the first half, he had totaled 170 yards of total offense (128 passing and 42 rushing) and a rushing TD. Sophomore Dan Persa played like an all-or-nothing ninja, setting personal game bests for completions (14), attempts (23), passing yards (115), rushing attempts (14) and rushing yards (42). Persa's 25-yard run tied as the longest rush for an NU player this season.

Senior wideout Zeke Markshausen is the by-product of Kafka's skill. With nine catches against Penn State, Markshausen has moved into the top spot in the Big Ten for receptions. He now has 67 catches, seventh in a season at Northwestern. The 5-11, 185-pounder, a former walk-on who holds a degree in mechanical engineering and is enrolled in graduate school (master's of engineering in design and innovation, is averaging 7.4 receptions a game.

Andrew Brewer, Drake Dunsmore and Demetrius Fields are NU's other top three receivers, with Brewer, a former QB, leading NU with five TD receptions and 15.8 yards a game. Brewer had one of his top career performances two weeks ago against Indiana with eight catches for 135 yards and a 51-yard TD grab. Dunsmore, a superback, has 31 receptions for 325 yards. Eleven different NU receivers caught passes against PSU.

The Wildcats don't seem to care much about putting together any sort of running game. It's been a sort of “running back by committee” approach that's produced just 3.1 yards a carry and 121.9 yards a game, 10th in the Big Ten.

Sophomore Scott Concannon, who had career bests for rushes (16) and yards (73) two weeks ago against Indiana, is the starter. Junior Stephen Simmons, slowed by an ankle injury, averages a team-best 36.8 yards a game.

Iowa defensive coordinator Norm Parker, 68, coached from the press box for the first time since 2004 last Saturday because of an ongoing struggle with a foot infection. Parker spent some time in the hospital last week dealing with it and went back to the hospital last Saturday night. Parker won't be on the practice field this week and will likely spend the rest of the season coaching from the press box.

“I don't know if it will be the whole season or not, but we've been pushing the envelope,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. “And, we just need to get him through this season right now, that's the most important thing.”

This is significant, for a lot of reasons, obviously. The Hawkeyes' pass coverage will be challenged by NU's crossing routes and underneath attack against Iowa's two-deep zone. The Cats will look for the linebacker-receiver matchup that Kafka can exploit with his accuracy. If Kafka's hamstring bounces back, he's superb at attacking passing lanes with his feet, basically running into vacated space.

The Cats also shift into something they call “super fastball,” which is a no-huddle concoction aimed at limiting personnel groups and the number of defensive calls that can be made against certain formations.

Yes, Iowa's defense is simple in concept, but a lot of thinking goes into positioning. Against NU's spread shiftiness, Iowa will need its veteran DC.

Kafka's health is the buzzkill here for the Cats. Even if he plays, you have to wonder where his health will be after straining a hamstring, especially considering the dual nature of his game.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

Northwestern's Stefan Demos is the only punter/kicker in the Big Ten, though he'd probably prefer kicker/punter. Demos is third in the Big Ten in field goal percentage (86.7), hitting on 13 of 15. He's made five straight field goals, including the 19-yard game-winner against Indiana. From 30 to 49 yards, he's 6 of 8 with a long of 49. Punting is another story. Demos is a rugby-style punter who's just kind of getting the Cats by in this category, last in the Big Ten with 35.2 yards a punt. Your offense is going to start pretty much where Demos punts it. Twenty five of his 40 punts have been fair caught or downed inside the opponent's 20. Teams have returned only 10 punts against NU all season.

Smith was NU's punt returner before the broken thumb. Brewer has helped there, averaging 5.5 yards a return. Opponents 21.8 yards a kick return against the Cats.

Iowa kicker Daniel Murray's technical woes caught up with him last week. Even though he was kicking a low ball, he made six straight before linedriving a 44-yarder short and ugly with a 17 mph wind behind his back against IU. ESPN analyst Bob Davie remarked on Murray's low trajectory. Will this haunt the Hawkeyes? Ferentz isn't worried about punter Ryan Donahue and his 8-yard misfire last week. He just tried to kill it and whiffed. Punt return is a disaster that needs immediate correction. It'll be Amari Spievey, who fumbled and set up an IU touchdown last week. If someone is going to end Iowa's touchdownless streak on kick return - 236 kicks now - it might be Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who had a 35-yarder last week.

Advantage: Iowa

The scoreboard

Health is everything for the Cats. If Kafka can't do what Kafka does, NU will be relying on a sophomore in front of a nasty Kinnick crowd and against a defense that kept last week's game winnable in the face of six Iowa turnovers. If Kafka is healthy and keeps Iowa's linebacker guessing, the Cats have a chance to control clock, sustain drives and win their third straight against the Hawkeyes. Whatever happens, for the Hawkeyes, it'll be another Tilt-a-Whirl of Death. You just know it.

Iowa 30, Northwestern 17

- Marc Morehouse