Supreme Court decisions underscore political shift on same-sex marriage

WASHINGTON - Over the past five years, public attitudes about same-sex marriage have changed as quickly and as dramatically as on any social issue in modern memory. In its pair of decisions Wednesday, the Supreme Court provided a historic push to the movement, even as it decided for now to leave the political wrangling over marriage to the states and the politicians.

Everything about the decisions on the Defense of Marriage Act and California's Proposition 8 suggested that the justices fully recognize the direction the national debate is heading. By every measure, more Americans are coming to accept the idea that same-sex marriages be legal, part of a cultural change of enormous significance.

The scene outside the Supreme Court spoke to the status of the national debate and to interpretations of what the justices had done. There the huge throngs were dominated by supporters of same-sex marriage, and their jubilation showed that they regarded Wednesday as a momentous day in the movement for marriage equality.

The shift in public opinion, however, is neither fully realized nor held consistently across the country - or among all demographic groups. Same-sex marriage continues to divide Americans on the basis of ideology, political party, age and region, which is why legal and political battles will continue after Wednesday's rulings. The court seemed keenly aware of that as well.

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What the court said is that it will provide federal recognition (and therefore benefits) to the legalization that has taken place in a growing number of states around the country, but the court did not require the majority of states that still bar such unions to overturn those laws. In doing what it did, even in stopping short of declaring same-sex marriage a constitutional right, the court likely provided strong assistance to the proponents for the battles ahead.

In one sense, the politics of same-sex marriage already had reached a tipping point. Less than a decade ago, Republicans saw the issue as a valuable political weapon with which to rally conservatives and put Democrats on the defensive. Today, though a majority of Republicans continue to oppose same-sex marriages, Republican leaders and candidates are on the defensive. Their positions may not have changed, but many of them are silent on the issue, particularly during political campaigns.

Thirty years ago, the culture wars split the Democratic coalition and left the party on the defensive in national elections. Today it is just the opposite. President Barack Obama and the Democrats now use the issue at every turn as a way to broaden and deepen their coalition, particularly among younger voters and younger women.

It was this coalition, along with the votes of African-Americans and Latinos, that propelled Obama to victory in November and that continues to grow larger as the demographics of the country continue to change.

Though it was just over a year ago that the president declared his support for same-sex marriage, he and his party have seized on what they now see as the political advantages of that position. From his second inaugural address in January to the speech he gave at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin last week, Obama has taken every opportunity to speak out in favor of gay rights and same-sex marriages.

Recent votes in some states, like Maryland and Minnesota, have underscored the momentum proponents of same-sex marriage now have. The court's ruling on Proposition 8 will once again add California, the nation's most populous state, to the list of jurisdictions where such marriages are legal.

In other ways, the battle over marriage continues to rage. Same-sex marriages are not legal in more than three dozen states. Many of those that bar same-sex marriages have written the bans into their constitutions. It could take many years to change those provisions, if the battles are engaged one by one, state by state. Only the Supreme Court could short-circuit that process.

For now the justices are unwilling. That is not to say that, in a few years, as additional tests are brought before these justices or a court with a different composition, there will be no change in the court's posture. As some proponents of same-sex marriage noted Wednesday, however, the struggle of rights rarely happens in a single, judicial thunder clap.

Legally, same-sex marriage has advanced principally in the blue states, symbolized by Massachusetts, New York and now again California. The states where same-sex marriages are legal constitute only 161 electoral votes, far short of the 270 needed to win a presidential election.

PUBLIC OPINION

Politically, public opinion continues to move in the direction of legalization. Depending on the wording of the question, polls show either a majority or a clear plurality now in favor. The shifts in recent years have been sizable, with younger Americans leading the way in support of same-sex marriage.

Last fall the Pew Research Center aggregated its polls from 2012 and found wide differences regionally. In New England, more than six in 10 favored allowing gays and lesbians to marry. In two areas of the South, opponents outnumbered supporters. In one case a majority remained in opposition.

What the Pew analysis highlighted was significant movement in every region in the direction of support for same-sex marriage.

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Obama, en route to Africa, hailed the court's ruling in the Defense of Marriage decision in a tweet. Republican leaders voiced their disappointment as they vowed to keep fighting to preserve traditional marriage.

Congressional Republicans had risen to defend DOMA before the court when the Obama administration said it would no longer do so, and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, voiced his disappointment with the court's decision. “A robust national debate over marriage will continue in the public square,” he said, “and it is my hope that states will define marriage as the union between one man and one woman.”

Other social conservative leaders decried the ruling in more vehement terms. Ralph Reed, chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, decried the court decision as a “stunning and indefensible display of judicial activism.”

The Republicans can look ahead to growing divisions within their coalition over this and other cultural issues. Those tensions are likely to intensify if public opinion continues to move in the direction of support for same-sex marriage and prospects for winning national elections diminish.

Democrats are now united on the issue. It is likely that anyone who seeks the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination will favor same-sex marriage. Whether anyone in the Republican field backs legalizing such marriages remains an open question.

History is moving against them on this and a top court led by Chief Justice John Roberts, a court that conservatives have looked to for support, did little Wednesday to offer aid or comfort.