Corn yields will depend on location

This year's spotty rains are making it difficult to determine overall corn yields in Eastern Iowa, according to a veteran farmland manager.

Larry Greiner of Farmers National Co.'s Iowa City office told the Cedar Rapids Airport Commission on Monday that the 2,200 acres of farmland his company manages for the airport has good quality soil and should not be hit by a "catastrophic" yield loss.

Greiner said the rain that has fallen since planting began in early April has been so spotty that farm location and soil condition ultimately will determine yields.

"I cover the area from Burlington to Vinton to Maquoketa," he said. "I'm trying to establish figures for possible yield losses, and it's almost got to be on a farm-by-farm basis. We will be looking at fields as pollination is finishing."

Crop conditions continued to deteriorate on average last week, according to the USDA's weekly Iowa Crops & Weather report released on Monday.

 Temperatures across the state averaged 2.5 degrees above normal -- the ninth week in the past ten of above-normal temperatures. Rainfall statewide averaged only 0.28 inches, about one-fourth of normal for the week.

The percentage of the corn crop rated "good" fell from 40 percent on July 9 to 32 percent on Monday, and the percentage rated excellent fell from 6 percent to 4 percent over the same period.

Meanwhile, the percentage of corn rated poor in quality rose from 13 percent to 19 percent, and the percentage rated fair rose from 36 percent to 37 percent. The crop percentage rated "very poor" increased to 8 percent from 5 percent.

Soybean crop conditions also deteriorated, with only 4 percent of the crop rated excellent and 34 percent rated good. The USDA estimated that 42 percent of the soybean crop is in fair condition, 15 percent is in poor condition and 5 percent is in bad shape.

Farmers and agronomists are watching carefully as the conditions change.

"One of the airport fields was planted in early April, and the silks are turning brown, which means pollination is complete," Greiner said. "We will be going out into that field to do some ear counts, count the number of kernels per ear, and maybe get a handle on the yield."

The airport commission receives income each year from the farmland that it cash rents to operators. The commission on Friday approved annual lease termination notices, requiring negotiation of a new contract setting rental rates for the next year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday lowered its average corn yield estimate by 12 percent, from 166 bushels per acre to 146 bushels per acre. The USDA said it lowered the average projected yield "reflecting the rapid decline in crop conditions since early June and the latest weather data."

Greiner said some farms in Iowa could see as much as a 50 percent drop in corn yield per acre. Somewhere around a 10 percent yield loss should be more common, he noted.

"On the other hand, I manage a farm on the outskirts of Jesup where the owner is expecting his best year for crop yield," Greiner said. "The area north of Vinton to Waterloo has received more widespread and timely rainfall."

While there is serious concern about Iowa's corn crop, soybean farmers also have reported seeing seed lying on dry ground.

"If we get some rainfall in August, we will probably still have a normal soybean crop," Greiner said. "Again, it's going to depend on the timing and amount of rainfall as well as soil conditions from farm to farm.

"Location will really be a factor."

As of July 16, topsoil moisture in Iowa was 58 percent very short, 34 percent short and 8 percent adequate. None of the state's farmland had surplus moisture.