Loras poll shows Braley taking lead in U.S. Senate race

CEDAR RAPIDS - A new poll showing Iowa Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley opening a lead over Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst is an indication he's gaining momentum, but U.S. Senate race is far from over, according to the Braley campaign.

'It's neck and neck and we know it's going to go down to the wire,” spokesman Jeff Giertz said after a Loras College Poll released Monday showed Braley with a 4.8 percentage point edge over Ernst in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin.

Braley has moved ahead of Ernst 45.3 percent to 40.5 percent in the poll of 1,200 likely general election voters. The poll, conducted Sept. 2-5, has a 2.82 percent margin of error.

That's a turnaround since a June Loras poll. Following the five-way GOP primary, which Ernst won with 56 percent of the vote, she led Braley 48 percent to 41.7 percent.

'Our campaign has growing momentum,” Giertz said, 'polls go up and polls go down and that's not going to change.”

Poll director Associate Professor of Politics Christopher Budzisz suggested 'heavy negative advertising has taken its toll on Ernst.”

Advertising by the Braley campaign and its allies has portrayed Ernst as out of the mainstream on a variety of issues including federal minimum age, Social Security and Medicare, the Renewable Fuel Standard and college students loans.

'To me, there's no question Sen. Ernst's radical and risky ideas are having a negative impact on her candidacy,” Giertz said.

The Ernst campaign declined to comment on the poll.

The race has been seen as a tossup by political handicappers and party insiders so Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan isn't surprised that it is close 56 days before the Nov. 4 election.

'It's a purple state,” Brennan said on Iowa Public Television's Iowa Press over the weekend. Harkin, he said, had close races other than an 11-point margin when first elected in 1984.

Ernst's 'high-water mark” was the day of the GOP primary, Brennan said.

'There is no momentum, evidence of any momentum in that race on her side,” he said. 'She hasn't moved the needle a whit since then.”

His counterpart, Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, said Braley has an advantage in that he is a four-term congressman.

That said, he said, Ernst, 'I think is doing very well … and I couldn't be happier with where we're at right now.

The needle has moved - in the wrong direction - for both candidates, 'but Ernst's is a more notable increase,” Budzisz said referring to her favorable and unfavorable ratings.

In June, 42 percent of likely voters viewed her favorably, while just 29 percent had an unfavorable view. Her unfavorable rating has now jumped to over 39 percent and exceeds her favorable rating.

For Braley, the unfavorable have increased from 26 percent to 34 percent, according to the poll of Iowans who voted in the 2012 general election or registered since then indicated they are 'extremely likely” or 'very likely” to vote in November.

Despite the Braley lead, the candidates get similar ratings on other measurements. Asked who best represents their values, 39 percent said Braley and 38 percent said Ernst. Braley had a 40 percent to 38 percent edge when voters were asked which candidate's positions were closest to their own.

'Looking at the values and issue position question, it appears that neither candidate has a clear advantage,” Budzisz said.

Looking at specific issues, however, differences clearly emerge between Braley and Ernst supporters, as well as the undecided. For example, 43 percent of Braley supporters said illegal immigration is 'critically or very important. It was important to 66 percent of Ernst supporters and 53 percent of undecided voters.

The national debt and foreign affairs/national security were more important to Ernst backers while environmental issues and income equality were more important to Braley supporters.

Jobs and the economy was important to 80 percent of Braley backers, 77 percent of Ernst supporters and 73 percent of undecided voters.

That largely tracks with established partisan lines, Budzisz said.

'Within the results you can also see reflected some of the recent heightened attention on foreign affairs and national security, as well the continued mixed economic news and sentiment,” he said. 'While jobs/economy is traditionally the most important issue voters list, foreign affairs and national security is certainly on the minds of Iowans. Over the past several months, there has been substantial media attention on international developments and national security, and I think we are finding that this is impacting Iowans as they consider the upcoming election.”

The survey sample was balanced for standard demographic variables such as age, gender and geography, but not weighted for partisanship/party registration. Based on self-identification, the respondents were 34 percent independent, 33 percent Democratic and 30 percent Republican.