Large field challenges Republican activists

Amid the vendors hawking kitchenware and timeshares inside the Mississippi Valley Fair's exhibition building this month, the Scott County Republican Party's booth boasted a large placard with pictures of all the party's 2016 presidential candidates.

All 17 of them.

The latest addition, squeezed in at the bottom right hand corner, was Jim Gilmore, a former governor of Virginia, who joined the race a couple weeks ago.

There was little room for any more. Which may be a good thing.

With 17 candidates vying for their party's nomination, Iowans who kick off the process - less than six months from now - already are challenged like never before.

At political events across the state, Republicans are turning out in large numbers to see the men and woman who want to be their nominee. But talk to them afterward and many will admit to struggling with the sheer volume of candidates.

'I'm still kind of sorting through the whole group,” said Brian Schmidt, a former Clinton County supervisor.

He mentions Marco Rubio: 'He's a candidate that intrigues me.” Then, he cites Carly Fiorina: 'She's one I've taken note of lately.”

Oh, and Chris Christie, too. 'I'm impressed,” he said.

Schmidt isn't alone trying to sort through the list.

At a Pizza Ranch in Muscatine last week, Christina Lensmire of Blue Grass showed up to see Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

Afterward, she said she liked what she saw but hadn't come to a decision, ticking off the names of a half-dozen candidates she was still considering.

'It's hard. It's very hard,” she said.

It's not that unusual for Iowans to be up in the air six months to go before the caucuses.

In fact, caucusgoers in Iowa in both parties are famous for making up their minds late. But party leaders said the sheer size of this field is a special challenge.

'It's going to take more work on their part, more time,” said Jeff Kaufmann, the state Republican chairman.

He added he believes people are taking that time, too.

'There are fewer people who have made commitments than I can remember,” he said.

Activists have praised the field, pointing to the large number of governors and others who are vying for the party's nomination.

In 2012, Republican critics lampooned what they saw as a 'clown car” of candidates seeking the nomination. And while this year's crop of hopefuls is drawing scorn from Democrats, activists seem happy with the menu of choices.

Susan Frazer, a LeClaire resident who used to chair the Scott County Republican Party, said that she's felt 'homeless” more recently given the choices of candidates. But this time, it's different, she said.

'Talk about feast or famine,” she said. 'This is a feast.”

Standing out

The full menu, though, has made it all the more important for the candidates to stand out among their peers.

Donald Trump already has done that. Others are struggling to keep up.

Thus, you see candidates such as Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky take a chain saw to the federal tax code.

Others, such as Jindal and, more recently, Fiorina, have pointed to polls purportedly showing them with momentum.

'In this cycle, getting to double digits in the polls, that's an early sign of success,” said Steve Grubbs, the Davenport-based strategist who is advising Paul in Iowa.

Estimates vary, with some strategists thinking it will still take 20 percent to win the caucuses. But others said it's possible the winner could top out in the high teens.

Certainly, they said, a top-three finisher could end up in the teens.

The lowest share of the vote for a previous Republican caucus winner was in 2012, when Rick Santorum got 24.6 percent.

Before that, it was Bob Dole with 26 percent in 1996. That year, eight candidates got at least one percent of the vote.

According to a RealClearPolitics average of polls since mid-July, there were 14 candidates who had the support of at least one percent of Iowa Republicans.

Trump led with 19.4 percent, and Scott Walker was next at 16 percent. Jeb Bush was third at 9 percent.

Many activists have said they aren't really considering all 17 candidates. But nearly all are vying for their attention.

Of the 14 candidates with more than 1 percent support in Iowa, all have been to the state, and a dozen have spent significant time here.

It's not clear whether that many will remain. Some analysts expect the field to narrow before Feb. 2. And, typically, there are fewer candidates at the starting line come caucus night than when the race began.

Some analysts thought the first Republican debates Aug. 6 might lead to some candidates dropping out. But that hasn't happened yet. Also, the Iowa Straw Poll that has led to some candidates being shown the door in the past was canceled.

So, the big field remains.