Why Iowa matters

It has begun. The quadrennial trickle of news emerging from what may seem an unlikely place has many Americans wondering, 'Why Iowa?” The national news media, eager to begin its mindless horserace coverage of the 2016 presidential contest, has already honed in on the Hawkeye State, which will be the first to give its backing to a potential presidential nominee early next year.

Democrats and Republicans from outside Iowa raise concerns about the influence the state has over the nominating contest. And particularly Republicans must ponder this point leading up to 2016 as they find a nominee to defeat Hillary Clinton.

I've recently spoken with a number of Iowans who have deep-seated knowledge of the caucus process - both senior leaders in the party and advisers to presidential campaigns. They all voiced support for Iowa's continuing prominence in choosing a nominee but are also quick to point out the challenges that lie ahead.

The event is a storied tradition or rite of passage. On the other hand, critics will argue that, for Republicans, the significance dates back only to 1976, when the GOP followed the lead of Iowa Democrats in making Iowa first in the nation. There have been a total of seven contested caucuses for the GOP. Only three of the Iowa caucuses winners were successful in going on to win the nomination. Only George W. Bush has been successful at both winning a contested Iowa caucuses and the White House.

Why might the caucuses do such a poor job propelling a candidate to the White House? Consider entrance polling from the 2012 Republican caucuses. Nearly half (47 percent) of caucusgoers considered themselves to be 'very conservative” and more than a third (37 percent) said they were 'somewhat conservative.” But in America as a whole, Gallup finds that only 38 percent consider themselves to be 'conservative.”

It makes sense that the caucuses are dominated by conservatives, but even within the GOP, the caucuses make for a strong rightward skew. Can such an event be relied on to choose an electable nominee?

Some candidates will struggle to thread the needle of maintaining electability while appealing to the base.

But one senior Iowa Republican unaligned with a presidential campaign took note of Chris Christie's appearance at the Iowa Freedom Summit. While the New Jersey Governor may have stood with a polarizing ally, he made an effort to say he won't agree with Iowa Republicans 100 percent of the time. Christie's appearance earned him laurels with the activists looking to vet a nominee.

Therein lies the strength of the caucuses. Each candidate, no matter their issue positions, can receive a thorough look from Iowa's party activists. After years of being courted, they are accustomed to examining the retail politicking of presidential aspirants. And of course, the state's press corps has a deep knowledge base from years putting candidates under the microscope.

Campaign strategists agree candidates skip Iowa at their own peril. Candidates need not win Iowa, they just need to win their lane.

' Shawn McCoy was Iowa Communications Director for the Romney Campaign and is now publisher of InsideSources.com. Comments: shawn@insidesources.com