Loras poll: Branstad maintains 22-point lead in gubernatorial race

CEDAR RAPIDS — Gov. Terry Branstad is holding a 22 percentage point lead as his campaign for a sixth term heads into the final four weeks

Branstad is leading Democratic challenger state Sen. Jack Hatch 55.7 percent to 33.3 percent, according to a Loras College Poll conducted Oct. 1-3.

The poll results are 'mostly bad news for Hatch,' associate professor of Politics and Director of the Loras College Poll, Christopher Budzisz, who directs the poll.

'If Hatch is to truly challenge Branstad, his campaign needs to have a remarkable and fortuitous couple of weeks,' Budzisz said.

Branstad has increased his lead over Hatch from nearly 14 percentage points in June to a 22-point lead, 55.5 percent to 33.5 percent in September.

Branstad continues to benefit from high name recognition and his campaign's financial advantage and organization, Budzisz said.

That's enhanced by voters' sense that Iowa, 'unlike the country as a whole, is moving in the right direction,' he added.

The poll found that voters' belief that the state is on the right track has increased from 57.5 percent in June to 59.7 percent this month.

Branstad campaign manager Jake Ketzner was quick to say the poll results show 'Iowans trust Gov. Branstad and want to see him back in office to continue building Iowa's future.'

'Even though they have had astronomical success the past three-and-a-half years, they're only getting started,' he said of Branstad and Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds.

The share of those who believe the state is on the wrong track has bounced around from 35.8 percent in June to 20.8 percent in September and up to 24.8 percent this month.

If he's to make headway, Hatch has to make the case that Iowa needs a change of leadership,' Budzisz said.

'I imagine that Branstad will continue to associate his tenure in office with positive developments in Iowa,' he said. 'While there is more than just 'don't change horses in midstream' to this election, the Branstad campaign's message is clearly designed to build upon voter beliefs about the direction of the state.'

If there's any good news in the poll for Hatch, Budzisz said it's that he's cut in half the number of people who have never heard of him.

However, Hatch's unfavorable ratings are above his favorable ratings suggesting that people know him because of Branstad's attack ads.

'It may be that the spending advantage enjoyed by Branstad has allowed the incumbent to be the one to inform voters about Hatch,' Budzisz said.

The Loras College Poll surveyed 600 likely 2014 general election voters. Statewide results have a 4 percent margin of error. The survey was conducted with a random sample of registered voters who voted in the 2012 general election or who have registered since then. It was not weighted for party affiliation.

The survey was conducted by live operators who called landlines (80 percent) and cellphones (20 percent).